Merrimack vs. UConn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Merrimack0-1
UConn0-1
▸Final
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
MERRTeam statsCONN
279Total yards624
155Pass346
124Rush278
12First downs26
4-183rd down5-11
0Turnovers0
31:52Possession28:08
- Q4 0:00MERRLliam Davis 32 Yd Field Goal 17–63
- Q4 7:31MERRSeth Sweitzer 71 Yd pass from Justin Lewis (Lliam Davis Kick)14–63
- Q3 6:10CONNAlexander Honig 12 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–63
- Q2 3:24CONNEzeriah Anderson 44 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–56
- Q2 5:58CONNCam Edwards 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)7–49
- Q2 13:18CONNShamar Porter 39 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–42
- Q1 0:27CONNSkyler Bell 60 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–35
- Q1 1:39MERRJermaine Corbett 46 Yd Run (Lliam Davis Kick)7–28
- Q1 4:40CONNVictor Rosa 29 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–28
- Q1 7:49CONNDurell Robinson 48 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:41CONNCam Edwards 50 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:00CONNJoe Fagnano 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
CONN −14.5
Against the number
CONN covered
line CONN −14.5
What the numbers say
- MERR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CONN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.7 vs 3rd & 5.5
- MERR lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 30% success rate
Kickoff146 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
CONN (top)MERR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CONN 100%
Closing line
CONN −14.5
Closing total
44.5
Model line
—
Actual result
MERR 17 – 63 CONN
Merrimack
- PassJustin Lewis 6/6, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJermaine Corbett 14 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSeth Sweitzer 2 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
UConn
- PassJoe Fagnano 13/19, 328 YDS, 5 TD
- RushDurell Robinson 10 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSkyler Bell 2 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
28.1sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
127
Points / snap
0.63
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCONN up 56 entering the 4th quarter. Across 95 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
CONN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Merrimack vs. UConn?
Merrimack 17, UConn 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
MERR
CONN
30%
Success rate
53%
-0.02
EPA / pass
0.84
0.15
EPA / rush
0.34
28%
Early-down success
56%
23%
Pass success
50%
34%
Rush success
55%
13%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
18%
34%
Stuffed rush rate
10%
43%
Pass rate
39%
9.7
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.5
MERR
9.7 yards to go on 3rd down
61 scrimmage snaps
CONN
5.5 yards to go on 3rd down
66 scrimmage snaps
| MERR | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 279 | Total yards | 624 |
| 155 | Passing yards | 346 |
| 124 | Rushing yards | 278 |
| 12 | First downs | 26 |
| 4-18 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 15/25 | Comp/Att | 17/26 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 13.3 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 7.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-75 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 31:52 | Possession | 28:08 |
MERR
8/11 with the model
−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob
CONN
3/5 with the model
−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 4:39 MERR punt on 4th & 1 at MERR 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishMERR 3/14 scoring drives← own end zone →CONN 9/14 scoring drives
CONNTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MERRUncateg3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
CONNTD4 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q1
MERRPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1
CONNTD1 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q1
MERRPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 21Q1
CONNTD4 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q1
MERRTD6 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q1
CONNTD2 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q1
MERRPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 16Q1
CONNTD3 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ2
MERRPUNT5 pl, 25 yds· own 19Q2
CONNTD10 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q2
MERRPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2
CONNTD2 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q2
MERRPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q2
CONNEND3 pl, 6 yds· own 35Q2
MERRPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 10Q3
CONNMISS4 pl, 7 yds· opp 41Q3
MERREND5 pl, 10 yds· own 34Q3
CONNTD7 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q3
MERRPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 27Q3
CONNDOWNS11 pl, 35 yds· own 41Q3
MERRPUNT9 pl, 21 yds· own 24Q4
CONNDOWNS7 pl, 21 yds· midfieldQ4
MERRTD1 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q4
CONNPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q4
MERRFG12 pl, 49 yds· own 37Q4
- Q4 0:00MERRLliam Davis 32 Yd Field Goal 17–63
- Q4 7:31MERRSeth Sweitzer 71 Yd pass from Justin Lewis (Lliam Davis Kick)14–63
- Q3 6:10CONNAlexander Honig 12 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–63
- Q2 3:24CONNEzeriah Anderson 44 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–56
- Q2 5:58CONNCam Edwards 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)7–49
- Q2 13:18CONNShamar Porter 39 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–42
- Q1 0:27CONNSkyler Bell 60 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–35
- Q1 1:39MERRJermaine Corbett 46 Yd Run (Lliam Davis Kick)7–28
- Q1 4:40CONNVictor Rosa 29 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–28
- Q1 7:49CONNDurell Robinson 48 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:41CONNCam Edwards 50 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:00CONNJoe Fagnano 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →