Georgia Southern vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsNEV
- Q3 2:30NEVMatthew Killam 27 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 9:07GASOGavin Stewart 48 Yd Field Goal 20–14
- Q2 0:03GASODalen Cobb 24 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart Kick)17–14
- Q2 12:15GASOGavin Stewart 30 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 1:08NEVBrendon Lewis 2 Yd Run (Matthew Killam Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:30GASOJoshua Thompson 35 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:33NEVCortez Braham Jr. 15 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Matthew Killam Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GASO lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassJC French IV 23/37, 243 YDS, 2 TD
- RushOJ Arnold 7 CAR, 23 YDS
- RecDalen Cobb 7 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrendon Lewis 23/35, 271 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBrendon Lewis 18 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCortez Braham Jr. 9 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGASO up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,455 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:03GASO +24%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 24 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
- Q4 2:35GASO +24%
Jalen White run for 19 yds to the NEV 40 for a 1ST down
- Q4 0:00GASO +24%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 62 yds to the GASO 5 for a 1ST down
- Q1 1:08NEV +19%
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)
- Q1 7:30GASO +18%
JC French pass complete to Joshua Thompson for 35 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
- Q1 9:33NEV +18%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Nevada?
Georgia Southern 20, Nevada 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GASO) was correct.
| GASO | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 285 | Total yards | 498 |
| 243 | Passing yards | 271 |
| 42 | Rushing yards | 227 |
| 20 | First downs | 26 |
| 2-10 | 3rd down | 10-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 23/37 | Comp/Att | 23/35 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-100 | Penalties | 14-134 |
| 22:39 | Possession | 37:21 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:13 GASO punt on 4th & 1 at GASO 22. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.91 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 2:30NEVMatthew Killam 27 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 9:07GASOGavin Stewart 48 Yd Field Goal 20–14
- Q2 0:03GASODalen Cobb 24 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart Kick)17–14
- Q2 12:15GASOGavin Stewart 30 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 1:08NEVBrendon Lewis 2 Yd Run (Matthew Killam Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:30GASOJoshua Thompson 35 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:33NEVCortez Braham Jr. 15 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Matthew Killam Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEV Elo 1271, GASO Elo 1381 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEV +2 (46% to win) — 2.5 points clear of GASO's market line of -0.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| GASO | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.0 (#93) | CORE overall | -5.2 (#87) |
| -2 / +6 | offense / defense | +1 / +6 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 2.18 |
| 2.47 | allowed / drive | 2.96 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →