Wyoming vs. Boise State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WYOTeam statsBOIS
- Q4 8:25BOISJonah Dalmas 48 Yd Field Goal 7–32
- Q3 1:44BOISPrince Strachan 6 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Jonah Dalmas Kick)7–29
- Q3 11:00BOISTaylen Green 9 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)7–22
- Q2 2:04BOISJambres Dubar 2 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)7–15
- Q1 1:46WYOJohn Michael Gyllenborg 19 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (John Hoyland Kick)7–8
- Q1 10:28BOISEric McAlister 49 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Colt Fulton Pass to Matt Lauter for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WYO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BOIS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.3 vs 3rd & 5.5
- PassAndrew Peasley 10/20, 85 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushHarrison Waylee 10 CAR, 18 YDS
- RecTreyton Welch 3 REC, 28 YDS
- PassMaddux Madsen 12/15, 147 YDS, 1 TD
- RushGeorge Holani 20 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecEric McAlister 7 REC, 160 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBOIS up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 821 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:04BOIS +18%
Jambres Dubar run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
- Q1 10:28BOIS +17%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 49 yds for a TD (Colt Fulton pass to Matt Lauter for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q1 1:46WYO +16%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 19 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
- Q3 11:00BOIS +11%
Taylen Green run for 9 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Wyoming vs. Boise State?
Wyoming 7, Boise State 32.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
| WYO | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 112 | Total yards | 443 |
| 85 | Passing yards | 216 |
| 27 | Rushing yards | 227 |
| 8 | First downs | 24 |
| 1-11 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 10/21 | Comp/Att | 15/21 |
| 4.0 | Yards per pass | 10.3 |
| 1.1 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-37 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 21:29 | Possession | 38:31 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:21 WYO punt on 4th & 3 at WYO 10. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.16 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:25BOISJonah Dalmas 48 Yd Field Goal 7–32
- Q3 1:44BOISPrince Strachan 6 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Jonah Dalmas Kick)7–29
- Q3 11:00BOISTaylen Green 9 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)7–22
- Q2 2:04BOISJambres Dubar 2 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)7–15
- Q1 1:46WYOJohn Michael Gyllenborg 19 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (John Hoyland Kick)7–8
- Q1 10:28BOISEric McAlister 49 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Colt Fulton Pass to Matt Lauter for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1533, WYO Elo 1433 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -6.4 (68% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBoise State leads 18–1 · Boise State has won 8 straight · 32% have been one-possession games
| WYO | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#70) | CORE overall | +7.9 (#37) |
| -2 / -0 | offense / defense | +10 / +2 |
| 2.04 | points / drive | 2.75 |
| 2.12 | allowed / drive | 2.18 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →