Valparaiso vs. Drake: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Valparaiso1-3

0014

Drake1-3

▸0020

Final

Drake StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
VALP	0	0	0	14	14
DRAK	7	3	7	3	20

VALPTeam statsDRAK

275Total yards313

140Pass267

135Rush46

20First downs15

7-193rd down4-15

1Turnovers1

33:26Possession26:34

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:50VALPMoise Tezzo 15 Yd pass from Jeffrey Jackson (Patrick Oliva Kick)14–20
• Q4 4:24DRAKShane Dunning 42 Yd Field Goal 7–20
• Q4 12:19VALPSolomon Davis 33 Yd pass from Jeffrey Jackson (Patrick Oliva Kick)7–17
• Q3 8:02DRAKGage Vander Leest 2 Yd pass from Luke Bailey (Shane Dunning Kick)0–17
• Q2 0:00DRAKShane Dunning 27 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 0:04DRAKMitchell January 57 Yd pass from Luke Bailey (Shane Dunning Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

DRAK −4.5

Against the number

DRAK covered

line DRAK −4.5

What the numbers say

• DRAK lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 28% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

DRAK 100%50%VALP 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

DRAK (top)VALP (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: DRAK 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

DRAK −4.5

Closing total

47.0

Model line

—

Actual result

VALP 14 – 20 DRAK

Leaders

Valparaiso

• PassMichael Appel Jr. 11/25, 78 YDS
• RushBrian Thomas 9 CAR, 37 YDS
• RecMoise Tezzo 4 REC, 40 YDS, 1 TD

Drake

• PassLuke Bailey 16/35, 257 YDS, 2 TD
• RushDoe Boyland 10 CAR, 27 YDS
• RecMitchell January 2 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.6sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

139

Points / snap

0.24

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

DRAK up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 839 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

97%

DRAK went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKansas vs Missouri State48-17WOhio State vs Indiana23-3WStanford vs Hawai'i37-24WSouth Carolina vs North Carolina31-17WPenn State vs West Virginia38-15

Fourth downs

20 calls

VALP gave up 2.7 points to the model on fourth down.VALP 4/10 · DRAK 6/9 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Valparaiso vs. Drake?

Valparaiso 14, Drake 20.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (DRAK) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

VALP

DRAK

35%

Success rate

28%

-0.17

EPA / pass

0.20

0.02

EPA / rush

-0.33

33%

Early-down success

28%

27%

Pass success

39%

44%

Rush success

9%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

32%

Stuffed rush rate

23%

56%

Pass rate

64%

8.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

10.3

VALP

8.6 yards to go on 3rd down

78 scrimmage snaps

DRAK

10.3 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

VALP		DRAK
275	Total yards	313
140	Passing yards	267
135	Rushing yards	46
20	First downs	15
7-19	3rd down	4-15
1-2	4th down	0-0
16/40	Comp/Att	17/36
3.5	Yards per pass	7.4
3.6	Yards per rush	1.9
1	Turnovers	1
7-78	Penalties	8-75
33:26	Possession	26:34

Fourth downs

20 calls

VALP

4/10 with the model

−2.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

DRAK

6/9 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 1:40 VALP punt on 4th & 4 at DRAK 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.87 points.

Every call, priced (20)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

VALP 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →DRAK 4/14 scoring drives

DRAKPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 35Q1

VALPDOWNS9 pl, 44 yds· own 26Q1

DRAKPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 30Q1

VALPPUNT8 pl, 28 yds· own 15Q1

DRAKTD4 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q1

VALPPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q1

DRAKPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 17Q2

VALPPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· opp 47Q2

DRAKPUNT6 pl, 32 yds· own 29Q2

VALPPUNT12 pl, 40 yds· own 20Q2

DRAKFUM8 pl, 42 yds· own 7Q2

VALPFUM3 pl, -3 yds· opp 41Q2

DRAKFG3 pl, 46 yds· own 44Q2

VALPPUNT7 pl, 26 yds· own 38Q3

DRAKPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q3

DRAKTD5 pl, 30 yds· opp 30Q3

VALPPUNT6 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q3

DRAKPUNT6 pl, 31 yds· own 11Q3

VALPPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 16Q3

DRAKPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 23Q3

VALPTD4 pl, 37 yds· opp 37Q4

DRAKPUNT7 pl, 28 yds· own 16Q4

VALPPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 12Q4

DRAKFG5 pl, 9 yds· opp 34Q4

VALPTD10 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q4

DRAKPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· opp 46Q4

VALPEND7 pl, 44 yds· own 18Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:50VALPMoise Tezzo 15 Yd pass from Jeffrey Jackson (Patrick Oliva Kick)14–20
• Q4 4:24DRAKShane Dunning 42 Yd Field Goal 7–20
• Q4 12:19VALPSolomon Davis 33 Yd pass from Jeffrey Jackson (Patrick Oliva Kick)7–17
• Q3 8:02DRAKGage Vander Leest 2 Yd pass from Luke Bailey (Shane Dunning Kick)0–17
• Q2 0:00DRAKShane Dunning 27 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 0:04DRAKMitchell January 57 Yd pass from Luke Bailey (Shane Dunning Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →