Nicholls vs. TCU: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Nicholls

TCU0-1

▸

Final

Amon G. Carter Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
NICH	0	3	3	0	6
TCU	14	10	0	17	41

NICHTeam statsTCU

263Total yards442

177Pass313

86Rush129

15First downs22

8-203rd down4-12

2Turnovers2

35:26Possession24:34

Q4 0:48TCUJordyn Bailey 34 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Griffin Kell Kick)6–41
Q4 6:31TCUGriffin Kell 42 Yd Field Goal 6–34
Q4 10:15TCUJoJo Earle 4 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Griffin Kell Kick)6–31
Q3 2:51NICHGavin Lasseigne 47 Yd Field Goal 6–24
Q2 0:08TCUGriffin Kell 57 Yd Field Goal 3–24
Q2 0:31NICHGavin Lasseigne 40 Yd Field Goal 3–21
Q2 10:43TCUJaylon Robinson 14 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Griffin Kell Kick)0–21
Q1 1:00TCUChandler Morris 32 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)0–14
Q1 10:34TCUBlake Nowell 24 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Griffin Kell Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

TCU −41.5

Against the number

NICH covered

line TCU −41.5

What the numbers say

TCU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NICH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.2 vs 3rd & 8.1

Kickoff74 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

TCU (top)NICH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TCU 100%

Closing line

TCU −41.5

Closing total

59.5

Model line

—

Actual result

NICH 6 – 41 TCU

Nicholls

PassPat McQuaide 17/36, 177 YDS, 1 INT
RushCollin Guggenheim 14 CAR, 38 YDS
RecNeno Lemay 8 REC, 100 YDS

TCU

PassChandler Morris 26/30, 263 YDS, 2 TD
RushEmani Bailey 19 CAR, 67 YDS
RecWarren Thompson 8 REC, 92 YDS

58.9sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

Points / snap

0.87

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

TCU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

97%

TCU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WWisconsin vs Buffalo38-17 WKansas State vs Troy42-13 WLafayette vs Columbia24-3 WTulane vs Southern Miss21-3 WNebraska vs Northern Illinois35-11

FAQ

What was the final score of Nicholls vs. TCU?

Nicholls 6, TCU 41.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (TCU) was correct.

NICH

TCU

31%

Success rate

48%

-0.29

EPA / pass

0.55

-0.11

EPA / rush

-0.27

35%

Early-down success

53%

28%

Pass success

64%

36%

Rush success

27%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

24%

18%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

62%

Pass rate

56%

8.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

10.2

NICH

8.1 yards to go on 3rd down

29 scrimmage snaps

TCU

10.2 yards to go on 3rd down

25 scrimmage snaps

NICH		TCU
263	Total yards	442
177	Passing yards	313
86	Rushing yards	129
15	First downs	22
8-20	3rd down	4-12
0-2	4th down	2-4
17/36	Comp/Att	28/33
4.9	Yards per pass	9.5
2.2	Yards per rush	3.5
2	Turnovers	2
7-45	Penalties	5-50
35:26	Possession	24:34

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

NICHTeam statsTCU

Scoring plays

How the model called it

What the numbers say

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

FAQ

What was the final score of Nicholls vs. TCU?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Nicholls vs. TCU: Final Score & Recap

NICHTeam statsTCU

How the model called it

What the numbers say

What was the final score of Nicholls vs. TCU?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?