#9Emani Bailey

RB·TCU·20232.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Emani Bailey is a Featured Back for TCU. Emani's 2023 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 220 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Emani Bailey's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

1209 Rush yards8 Rush TD223 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

25 Receptions184 Rec yards1 Rec TD7.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency8
Volume76
Explosiveness48
Consistency69
Receiving35

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency69th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.14 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.63 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Colorado (SP+ -5).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsColorado	L42-45	-4.9	14	164	11.7	0	—	—	—	0.63
2	vsNicholls	W41-6	—	19	67	3.5	0	1	16	0	0.35
3	@Houston	W36-13	-7.8	23	126	5.5	1	3	23	0	0.21
4	vsSMU	W34-17	10.1	25	126	5.0	1	1	11	0	0.28
5	vsWest Virginia	L21-24	7.5	19	55	2.9	0	4	25	0	-0.18
6	@Iowa State	L14-27	7.5	21	152	7.2	0	2	15	0	0.32
7	vsBYU	W44-11	-3.3	13	61	4.7	0	1	7	0	0.01
8	@Kansas State	L3-41	16.2	12	100	8.3	0	2	8	0	0.22
10	@Texas Tech	L28-35	6.1	19	57	3.0	2	5	36	0	0.07
11	vsTexas	L26-29	23.2	21	98	4.7	1	—	—	—	0.19
12	vsBaylor	W42-17	-8.3	16	53	3.3	2	2	19	0	-0.03
13	@Oklahoma	L45-69	15.0	21	150	7.1	1	4	24	1	0.30

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.6%

Passing plays

5.1%

Rushing plays

56.5%

Standard downs

31.0%

Passing downs

17.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.11
Passing downs: 0.47
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.42 / 0.15

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.