Navy vs. SMU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsSMU
- Q3 9:31SMUIsaiah Nwokobia 74 Yd Interception Return (Collin Rogers Kick)14–59
- Q2 0:41SMUCollin Rogers 30 Yd Field Goal 14–52
- Q2 4:10NAVYBraxton Woodson 69 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)14–49
- Q2 4:59SMUTyler Lavine 19 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)7–49
- Q2 9:32SMUTyler Lavine 8 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)7–42
- Q2 14:12SMUWill Benton IV 0 Yd Fumble Return (Collin Rogers Kick)7–35
- Q1 0:56NAVYDaba Fofana 1 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–28
- Q1 1:57SMUMoochie Dixon 26 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–28
- Q1 5:26SMUJordan Hudson 27 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–21
- Q1 8:57SMUMoochie Dixon 15 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:09SMUTyler Lavine 1 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBraxton Woodson 9/18, 71 YDS, 1 INT
- RushBraxton Woodson 18 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAlex Tecza 3 REC, 34 YDS
- PassPreston Stone 14/19, 322 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTyler Lavine 7 CAR, 49 YDS, 3 TD
- RecMoochie Dixon 4 REC, 125 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSMU up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 100 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:09SMU +8%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. SMU?
Navy 14, SMU 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.
| NAVY | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 253 | Total yards | 487 |
| 71 | Passing yards | 369 |
| 182 | Rushing yards | 118 |
| 14 | First downs | 20 |
| 2-15 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 9/25 | Comp/Att | 18/29 |
| 2.8 | Yards per pass | 12.7 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-70 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 32:04 | Possession | 27:56 |
Costliest call
Q3 14:56 NAVY go for it on 4th & 9 at NAVY 26. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.91 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 9:31SMUIsaiah Nwokobia 74 Yd Interception Return (Collin Rogers Kick)14–59
- Q2 0:41SMUCollin Rogers 30 Yd Field Goal 14–52
- Q2 4:10NAVYBraxton Woodson 69 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)14–49
- Q2 4:59SMUTyler Lavine 19 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)7–49
- Q2 9:32SMUTyler Lavine 8 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)7–42
- Q2 14:12SMUWill Benton IV 0 Yd Fumble Return (Collin Rogers Kick)7–35
- Q1 0:56NAVYDaba Fofana 1 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–28
- Q1 1:57SMUMoochie Dixon 26 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–28
- Q1 5:26SMUJordan Hudson 27 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–21
- Q1 8:57SMUMoochie Dixon 15 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:09SMUTyler Lavine 1 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SMU Elo 1769, NAVY Elo 1394 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SMU -17.4 (87% to win) — 2.6 points clear of NAVY's market line of -20. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNavy leads 13–12 · SMU has won 4 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.9 (#116) | CORE overall | +13.9 (#25) |
| -15 / +2 | offense / defense | +4 / -9 |
| 1.30 | points / drive | 2.76 |
| 1.78 | allowed / drive | 1.37 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -21 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →