Morehead State vs. St. Thomas (MN): Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Morehead State1-1
St. Thomas (MN)1-2
▸Final
O'Shaughnessy StadiumConference game
MORETeam statsST.
368Total yards422
302Pass137
66Rush285
22First downs15
4-153rd down6-13
0Turnovers1
30:30Possession29:30
- Q4 0:09ST. Jacob WIldermuth 26 Yd pass from Tak Tateoka (Stephen Shagen Kick)28–35
- Q4 1:52MORECaleb Ramseur 16 Yd Run (Nathan Hazlett Kick)28–28
- Q4 13:01ST. Patrick Wagner 2 Yd pass from Tak Tateoka (Stephen Shagen Kick)21–28
- Q3 1:21MORECaleb Ramseur 3 Yd Run (Nathan Hazlett Kick)21–21
- Q3 5:40ST. Shawn Shipman 71 Yd Run (Stephen Shagen Kick)14–21
- Q3 6:33MORECaleb Tillman 9 Yd pass from Carter Cravens (Nathan Hazlett Kick)14–14
- Q3 10:50ST. Matthew Rink 2 Yd Punt Return (Stephen Shagen Kick)7–14
- Q3 12:46ST. Shawn Shipman 61 Yd Run (Stephen Shagen Kick)7–7
- Q2 1:04MOREKyle Daly 24 Yd pass from Carter Cravens (Nathan Hazlett Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
ST. −16
Against the number
MORE covered
line ST. −16
What the numbers say
- MORE played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ST. did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.4 vs 3rd & 5.0
- MORE lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 20% explosive on a 33% success rate
Kickoff158 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
ST. (top)MORE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ST. 100%
Closing line
ST. −16
Closing total
49.5
Model line
—
Actual result
MORE 28 – 35 ST.
Morehead State
- PassCarter Cravens 20/44, 295 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCaleb Ramseur 12 CAR, 74 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKyle Daly 6 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
St. Thomas (MN)
- PassTak Tateoka 10/16, 137 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushShawn Shipman 16 CAR, 204 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAndrew McElroy 5 REC, 92 YDS
24.7sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
133
Points / snap
0.47
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,330 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
ST. win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Morehead State vs. St. Thomas (MN)?
Morehead State 28, St. Thomas (MN) 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ST. ) was correct.
MORE
ST.
33%
Success rate
44%
0.34
EPA / pass
0.30
-0.14
EPA / rush
0.29
34%
Early-down success
44%
34%
Pass success
44%
31%
Rush success
44%
20%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
12%
27%
Stuffed rush rate
15%
66%
Pass rate
32%
10.4
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.0
MORE
10.4 yards to go on 3rd down
76 scrimmage snaps
ST.
5.0 yards to go on 3rd down
57 scrimmage snaps
| MORE | ST. | |
|---|---|---|
| 368 | Total yards | 422 |
| 302 | Passing yards | 137 |
| 66 | Rushing yards | 285 |
| 22 | First downs | 15 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 21/45 | Comp/Att | 10/16 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 7.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 13-105 | Penalties | 11-109 |
| 30:30 | Possession | 29:30 |
MORE
7/10 with the model
−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob
ST.
3/7 with the model
−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 6:34 ST. punt on 4th & 6 at MORE 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishMORE 5/14 scoring drives← own end zone →ST. 4/13 scoring drives
MOREPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1
ST. PUNT8 pl, 29 yds· own 30Q1
MOREPUNT5 pl, 0 yds· own 32Q1
ST. PUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 36Q1
ST. PUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 33Q1
MOREPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 20Q1
MOREPUNT6 pl, 36 yds· own 25Q1
ST. INT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2
ST. DOWNS7 pl, 24 yds· own 14Q2
MOREDOWNS4 pl, 1 yds· opp 38Q2
ST. PUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 37Q2
MOREPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 16Q2
ST. PUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 41Q2
MORETD9 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q2
MOREPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· opp 37Q2
ST. END2 pl, 12 yds· own 20Q2
ST. TD4 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q3
MORETD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
MORETD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
ST. TD3 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
MORETD11 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q3
ST. TD7 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3
ST. PUNT5 pl, 30 yds· own 24Q4
MOREPUNT4 pl, 3 yds· own 32Q4
MORETD12 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q4
ST. TD5 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q4
MOREUncateg2 pl, -5 yds· own 23Q4
- Q4 0:09ST. Jacob WIldermuth 26 Yd pass from Tak Tateoka (Stephen Shagen Kick)28–35
- Q4 1:52MORECaleb Ramseur 16 Yd Run (Nathan Hazlett Kick)28–28
- Q4 13:01ST. Patrick Wagner 2 Yd pass from Tak Tateoka (Stephen Shagen Kick)21–28
- Q3 1:21MORECaleb Ramseur 3 Yd Run (Nathan Hazlett Kick)21–21
- Q3 5:40ST. Shawn Shipman 71 Yd Run (Stephen Shagen Kick)14–21
- Q3 6:33MORECaleb Tillman 9 Yd pass from Carter Cravens (Nathan Hazlett Kick)14–14
- Q3 10:50ST. Matthew Rink 2 Yd Punt Return (Stephen Shagen Kick)7–14
- Q3 12:46ST. Shawn Shipman 61 Yd Run (Stephen Shagen Kick)7–7
- Q2 1:04MOREKyle Daly 24 Yd pass from Carter Cravens (Nathan Hazlett Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →