Maryland vs. Michigan State: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Maryland3-0

▸

Michigan State2-1

Final

Spartan StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
MD	7	14	0	10	31
MSU	0	3	6	0	9

MDTeam statsMSU

362Total yards376

223Pass274

139Rush102

18First downs26

6-153rd down5-13

1Turnovers5

28:36Possession31:24

Q4 3:18MDOctavian Smith Jr. 31 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)31–9
Q4 11:00MDJack Howes 48 Yd Field Goal 24–9
Q3 3:44MSUTyrell Henry 9 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–9
Q2 3:39MSUJonathan Kim 37 Yd Field Goal 21–3
Q2 8:39MDTaulia Tagovailoa 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)21–0
Q2 11:28MDTyrese Chambers 12 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)14–0
Q1 7:52MDSean Greeley 1 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Model line

MD −3.1

market MD −7.5

Biggest swing

MD +17%

Q1 7:52

Against the number

MD covered

line MD −7.5

MSU favored ↑50%MD favored ↓

GridpexMD 100%

Closing line

MD −7.5

Closing total

52.5

Model line

MD −3.1

Actual result

MD 31 – 9 MSU

Maryland

PassTaulia Tagovailoa 21/36, 223 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
RushColby McDonald 5 CAR, 38 YDS
RecTai Felton 3 REC, 67 YDS

Michigan State

PassNoah Kim 18/32, 190 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
RushNathan Carter 19 CAR, 97 YDS
RecMontorie Foster Jr. 6 REC, 67 YDS

23.9sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

144

Points / snap

0.28

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MD up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,516 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

91%

MD went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WTexas vs Kansas40-14 WJackson State vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff40-14 WOhio State vs Rutgers35-16 WGeorgetown vs Bucknell50-47 WMissouri State vs Northern Iowa35-16

Q1 7:52MD +17%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Sean Greeley for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
Q2 11:28MD +14%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
Q2 8:39MD +7%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
Q3 3:44MSU +7%
Tyrell Henry 9 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

FAQ

What was the final score of Maryland vs. Michigan State?

Maryland 31, Michigan State 9.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MD) was correct.

MSU

38%

Success rate

47%

0.19

EPA / pass

-0.00

0.06

EPA / rush

0.02

36%

Early-down success

48%

42%

Pass success

41%

33%

Rush success

59%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

13%

Stuffed rush rate

17%

55%

Pass rate

63%

6.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.6

6.9 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

MSU

8.6 yards to go on 3rd down

78 scrimmage snaps

MD		MSU
362	Total yards	376
223	Passing yards	274
139	Rushing yards	102
18	First downs	26
6-15	3rd down	5-13
2-2	4th down	3-4
21/36	Comp/Att	26/44
6.2	Yards per pass	6.2
4.5	Yards per rush	3.3
1	Turnovers	5
4-50	Penalties	6-70
28:36	Possession	31:24

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

MSU 1509

MD 1646

Projected spread

MSU +3.1

incl. home edge

Model pick

57% to win

Market spread

MSU +7.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

MSU

4.4 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

43%

MSU · market 31%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSU Elo 1509, MD Elo 1646 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSU +3.1 (43% to win) — 4.4 points clear of MSU's market line of +7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2023

nationally ranked

MD2023 season · national rank shownMSU

387.365th

Total yards / game

285.8128th

5.954th

Yards / play

4.6128th

278.922nd

Passing yards / game

197.299th

108.4116th

Rushing yards / game

88.7128th

42.0%42nd

3rd down %

30.4%124th

334.131st

Yards allowed / game

389.781st

33.5%26th

3rd down % allowed

34.6%32nd

+342nd

Turnover margin

-6112th

5.545th

Penalties / game

6.8106th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

The series16 meetings since 1944

Michigan State leads 12–4 · Michigan State has won 2 straight · 25% have been one-possession games

Opponent-adjusted profile2023

MD		MSU
+16.7 (#17)	CORE overall	-14.5 (#108)
+8 / -9	offense / defense	-10 / +4
2.35	points / drive	0.94
2.03	allowed / drive	2.40
24%	three-and-outs	38%
+11	pass over expected	+4

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

MDTeam statsMSU

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Maryland vs. Michigan State?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2023

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Maryland vs. Michigan State: Final Score & Recap

MDTeam statsMSU

How the model called it

What was the final score of Maryland vs. Michigan State?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups