Northern Iowa vs. Missouri State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Northern Iowa0-1
Missouri State0-1
▸Final
Plaster Sports ComplexConference game
NORTTeam statsMOST
299Total yards430
182Pass326
117Rush104
17First downs24
5-143rd down5-12
2Turnovers2
27:27Possession32:33
- Q4 3:24NORTSam Schnee 66 Yd pass from Theo Day (Matthew Cook Kick)16–35
- Q4 9:07MOSTJayden Becks 14 Yd Run (Owen Rozanc Kick)9–35
- Q4 12:56MOSTRaylen Sharpe 10 Yd pass from Jordan Pachot (Owen Rozanc Kick)9–28
- Q3 5:09NORTMatthew Cook 38 Yd Field Goal 9–21
- Q3 9:55NORTMatthew Cook 48 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 8:27MOSTGary Clinton 3 Yd pass from Jordan Pachot (Owen Rozanc Kick)3–21
- Q2 12:04MOSTRaylen Sharpe 14 Yd pass from Jordan Pachot (Owen Rozanc Kick)3–14
- Q1 0:35NORTMatthew Cook 29 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 6:32MOSTJmariyae Robinson 19 Yd pass from Jordan Pachot (Owen Rozanc Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
NORT −6.5
Against the number
MOST covered
line NORT −6.5
What the numbers say
- NORT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MOST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.3 vs 3rd & 6.0
- NORT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 32% success rate
Kickoff153 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
MOST (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MOST 100%
Closing line
NORT −6.5
Closing total
56.5
Model line
—
Actual result
NORT 16 – 35 MOST
Northern Iowa
- PassTheo Day 14/35, 182 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushTye Edwards 12 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecSam Schnee 3 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
Missouri State
- PassJordan Pachot 27/35, 326 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushJacardia Wright 15 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecRaylen Sharpe 11 REC, 160 YDS, 2 TD
26.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
137
Points / snap
0.37
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMOST up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,517 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
91%
MOST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Iowa vs. Missouri State?
Northern Iowa 16, Missouri State 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MOST) was correct.
NORT
MOST
32%
Success rate
52%
-0.01
EPA / pass
0.57
0.11
EPA / rush
0.16
31%
Early-down success
52%
32%
Pass success
46%
32%
Rush success
59%
16%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
13%
21%
Stuffed rush rate
17%
59%
Pass rate
57%
10.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.0
NORT
10.3 yards to go on 3rd down
69 scrimmage snaps
MOST
6.0 yards to go on 3rd down
68 scrimmage snaps
| NORT | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 299 | Total yards | 430 |
| 182 | Passing yards | 326 |
| 117 | Rushing yards | 104 |
| 17 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 14/35 | Comp/Att | 27/35 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 12-103 | Penalties | 10-104 |
| 27:27 | Possession | 32:33 |
NORT
7/9 with the model
−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob
MOST
4/6 with the model
−1.6 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 MOST field goal on 4th & 1 at NORT 21. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.86 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishNORT 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →MOST 5/12 scoring drives
MOSTFUM6 pl, 35 yds· own 0Q1
NORTINT3 pl, 32 yds· own 40Q1
MOSTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 13Q1
NORTDOWNS5 pl, 3 yds· opp 42Q1
MOSTTD5 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q1
NORTFG13 pl, 63 yds· opp 0Q1
MOSTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 0Q1
NORTINT5 pl, 7 yds· opp 0Q2
MOSTTD2 pl, 7 yds· opp 7Q2
NORTPUNT7 pl, 27 yds· opp 0Q2
MOSTMISS12 pl, 68 yds· own 11Q2
NORTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 15Q3
MOSTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 24Q3
NORTFG6 pl, 26 yds· own 43Q3
MOSTINT3 pl, -2 yds· own 0Q3
NORTFG9 pl, 22 yds· opp 43Q3
MOSTTD12 pl, 85 yds· own 0Q3
NORTPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 14Q4
MOSTTD5 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q4
NORTDOWNS8 pl, 34 yds· own 30Q4
MOSTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 36Q4
NORTTD2 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q4
MOSTEND5 pl, 23 yds· own 0Q4
- Q4 3:24NORTSam Schnee 66 Yd pass from Theo Day (Matthew Cook Kick)16–35
- Q4 9:07MOSTJayden Becks 14 Yd Run (Owen Rozanc Kick)9–35
- Q4 12:56MOSTRaylen Sharpe 10 Yd pass from Jordan Pachot (Owen Rozanc Kick)9–28
- Q3 5:09NORTMatthew Cook 38 Yd Field Goal 9–21
- Q3 9:55NORTMatthew Cook 48 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 8:27MOSTGary Clinton 3 Yd pass from Jordan Pachot (Owen Rozanc Kick)3–21
- Q2 12:04MOSTRaylen Sharpe 14 Yd pass from Jordan Pachot (Owen Rozanc Kick)3–14
- Q1 0:35NORTMatthew Cook 29 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 6:32MOSTJmariyae Robinson 19 Yd pass from Jordan Pachot (Owen Rozanc Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →