LSU vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LSUTeam statsMISS
- Q4 0:39MISSTre Harris 13 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Quinshon Judkins Run for Two-Point Conversion)49–55
- Q4 5:06MISSJaxson Dart 1 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)49–47
- Q4 8:34LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 34 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)49–40
- Q4 14:13MISSQuinshon Judkins 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)42–40
- Q3 3:41LSULogan Diggs 12 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)42–34
- Q3 8:20MISSCaden Davis 48 Yd Field Goal 35–34
- Q3 11:30LSUJayden Daniels 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)35–31
- Q2 0:58LSUKyren Lacy 29 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)28–31
- Q2 1:42MISSCaden Davis 28 Yd Field Goal 21–31
- Q2 4:30LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 11 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)21–28
- Q2 8:10MISSDayton Wade 15 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)14–28
- Q2 12:46LSULogan Diggs 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)14–21
- Q1 0:12MISSJordan Watkins 63 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)7–21
- Q1 1:25LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 20 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:00MISSUlysses Bentley IV 43 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:25MISSQuinshon Judkins 4 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJayden Daniels 27/36, 414 YDS, 4 TD
- RushLogan Diggs 19 CAR, 101 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBrian Thomas Jr. 8 REC, 124 YDS, 3 TD
- PassJaxson Dart 26/39, 389 YDS, 4 TD
- RushQuinshon Judkins 33 CAR, 177 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTre' Harris 8 REC, 153 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLSU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,586 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:39MISS +59%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds for a TD (Q. Judkins Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q4 5:06MISS +39%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
- Q4 2:18MISS +30%
Jaxson Dart run for 7 yds to the MISS 19
- Q4 14:13MISS +26%
Quinshon Judkins run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q3 11:30LSU +25%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
- Q3 3:41LSU +25%
Logan Diggs run for 12 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of LSU vs. Ole Miss?
LSU 49, Ole Miss 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LSU | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 637 | Total yards | 706 |
| 414 | Passing yards | 389 |
| 223 | Rushing yards | 317 |
| 34 | First downs | 32 |
| 5-10 | 3rd down | 9-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 27/38 | Comp/Att | 26/39 |
| 10.9 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 6.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-35 | Penalties | 11-121 |
| 29:17 | Possession | 30:43 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:39MISSTre Harris 13 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Quinshon Judkins Run for Two-Point Conversion)49–55
- Q4 5:06MISSJaxson Dart 1 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)49–47
- Q4 8:34LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 34 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)49–40
- Q4 14:13MISSQuinshon Judkins 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)42–40
- Q3 3:41LSULogan Diggs 12 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)42–34
- Q3 8:20MISSCaden Davis 48 Yd Field Goal 35–34
- Q3 11:30LSUJayden Daniels 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)35–31
- Q2 0:58LSUKyren Lacy 29 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)28–31
- Q2 1:42MISSCaden Davis 28 Yd Field Goal 21–31
- Q2 4:30LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 11 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)21–28
- Q2 8:10MISSDayton Wade 15 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)14–28
- Q2 12:46LSULogan Diggs 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)14–21
- Q1 0:12MISSJordan Watkins 63 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)7–21
- Q1 1:25LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 20 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:00MISSUlysses Bentley IV 43 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:25MISSQuinshon Judkins 4 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 1667, LSU Elo 1752 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MISS +1 (49% to win) — 2.0 points clear of MISS's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#107 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #95 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds · #39 of 51 in 2023 by biggest poll gap.
The 2023 upset archive →LSU leads 64–41–4 · 43% have been one-possession games
| LSU | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| +21.8 (#10) | CORE overall | +15.2 (#23) |
| +31 / +10 | offense / defense | +10 / -5 |
| 3.86 | points / drive | 2.78 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 1.97 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +8 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →