Louisiana vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULTeam statsUAB
- Q4 0:10UABSamario Rudolph 17 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)41–21
- Q4 1:33UABLee Beebe 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)41–15
- Q4 4:10UABJacob Zeno 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)41–9
- Q4 7:11ULElijah Davis 2 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)41–3
- Q3 1:02ULTerrance Carter 11 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Kenneth Almendares Kick)34–3
- Q3 2:09UABMatt Quinn 41 Yd Field Goal 27–3
- Q3 5:46ULKenneth Almendares 37 Yd Field Goal 27–0
- Q2 0:00ULKenneth Almendares 46 Yd Field Goal 24–0
- Q2 1:06ULZeon Chriss 6 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)21–0
- Q2 5:35ULZeon Chriss 80 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)14–0
- Q2 9:11ULJacob Kibodi 30 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UAB lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassZeon Chriss-Gremillion 14/20, 174 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJacob Kibodi 7 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHarvey Broussard III 3 REC, 65 YDS
- PassJacob Zeno 27/38, 280 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJacob Zeno 17 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSamario Rudolph 8 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUL up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 342 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:11UL +21%
Jacob Kibodi run for 30 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
- Q2 5:35UL +20%
Zeon Chriss run for 80 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
- Q2 1:06UL +8%
Zeon Chriss run for 6 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. UAB?
Louisiana 41, UAB 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UAB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UL | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 513 | Total yards | 396 |
| 208 | Passing yards | 280 |
| 305 | Rushing yards | 116 |
| 22 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 16/24 | Comp/Att | 27/38 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 7.6 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-65 | Penalties | 9-98 |
| 29:05 | Possession | 30:55 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:19 UAB punt on 4th & 1 at UAB 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:10UABSamario Rudolph 17 Yd pass from Jacob Zeno (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)41–21
- Q4 1:33UABLee Beebe 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)41–15
- Q4 4:10UABJacob Zeno 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)41–9
- Q4 7:11ULElijah Davis 2 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)41–3
- Q3 1:02ULTerrance Carter 11 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Kenneth Almendares Kick)34–3
- Q3 2:09UABMatt Quinn 41 Yd Field Goal 27–3
- Q3 5:46ULKenneth Almendares 37 Yd Field Goal 27–0
- Q2 0:00ULKenneth Almendares 46 Yd Field Goal 24–0
- Q2 1:06ULZeon Chriss 6 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)21–0
- Q2 5:35ULZeon Chriss 80 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)14–0
- Q2 9:11ULJacob Kibodi 30 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1473, UL Elo 1515 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB -0.7 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#44 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #109 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →The series is level at 4–4 · Louisiana has won 3 straight · 13% have been one-possession games
| UL | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9 (#66) | CORE overall | -5.4 (#86) |
| +7 / +8 | offense / defense | +6 / +11 |
| 2.57 | points / drive | 2.37 |
| 2.48 | allowed / drive | 3.34 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →