Louisiana vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULTeam statsARST
- Q4 1:02ARSTJavante Mackey 16 Yd Fumble Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–37
- Q4 1:16ARSTDominic Zvada 30 Yd Field Goal 17–30
- Q3 2:08ARSTJaylen Raynor 2 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–27
- Q3 6:25ULZeon Chriss 1 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)17–20
- Q2 0:57ULKenneth Almendares 24 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q2 4:26ARSTDominic Zvada 20 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 11:30ARSTDominic Zvada 41 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 4:14ARSTJaylen Raynor 2 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:59ULPeter LeBlanc 87 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Kenneth Almendares Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:14ARSTZak Wallace 18 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 5.5
- UL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassZeon Chriss-Gremillion 12/17, 171 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDre Washington 10 CAR, 35 YDS
- RecPeter LeBlanc 6 REC, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJaylen Raynor 18/28, 194 YDS
- RushZak Wallace 15 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJa'Quez Cross 6 REC, 66 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARST up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,137 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:08ARST +35%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
- Q3 6:25UL +22%
Zeon Chriss run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
- Q1 4:14ARST +15%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
- Q1 9:14ARST +15%
Zak Wallace run for 18 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
- Q4 10:13ARST +14%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 14
- Q1 8:59UL +14%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 87 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. Arkansas State?
Louisiana 17, Arkansas State 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UL | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 327 | Total yards | 426 |
| 263 | Passing yards | 194 |
| 64 | Rushing yards | 232 |
| 20 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 9-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 22/34 | Comp/Att | 18/28 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-25 | Penalties | 7-78 |
| 25:07 | Possession | 34:53 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:14 UL punt on 4th & 1 at UL 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.84 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:02ARSTJavante Mackey 16 Yd Fumble Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–37
- Q4 1:16ARSTDominic Zvada 30 Yd Field Goal 17–30
- Q3 2:08ARSTJaylen Raynor 2 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–27
- Q3 6:25ULZeon Chriss 1 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)17–20
- Q2 0:57ULKenneth Almendares 24 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q2 4:26ARSTDominic Zvada 20 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 11:30ARSTDominic Zvada 41 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 4:14ARSTJaylen Raynor 2 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:59ULPeter LeBlanc 87 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Kenneth Almendares Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:14ARSTZak Wallace 18 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARST Elo 1106, UL Elo 1584 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARST +16.7 (15% to win) — 9.2 points clear of UL's market line of +7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#25 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #55 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Louisiana leads 28–18 · Louisiana has won 2 straight · 48% have been one-possession games
| UL | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9 (#66) | CORE overall | -10.4 (#100) |
| +7 / +8 | offense / defense | -3 / +8 |
| 2.57 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 2.48 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →