Florida State vs. Boston College: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FSUTeam statsBC
- Q4 5:19BCThomas Castellanos 7 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)31–29
- Q4 11:18BCKhari Johnson 18 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–22
- Q3 1:02BCKye Robichaux 1 Yd Run (Liam Connor PAT failed)31–16
- Q3 11:20FSUDJ Lundy 1 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)31–10
- Q3 12:28FSUPreston Daniel 4 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)24–10
- Q2 1:27FSUTrey Benson 2 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–10
- Q2 10:23FSUJaheim Bell 19 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)10–10
- Q2 13:22BCLiam Connor 21 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 5:59FSURyan Fitzgerald 30 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:53BCLewis Bond 32 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Liam Connor Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassJordan Travis 15/24, 223 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRodney Hill 5 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecJohnny Wilson 4 REC, 105 YDS
- PassThomas Castellanos 20/33, 305 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushThomas Castellanos 16 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLewis Bond 3 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFSU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,204 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 5:19BC +28%
Thomas Castellanos run for 7 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
- Q4 2:12FSU +26%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the FSU 36
- Q4 4:00BC +20%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 21
- Q4 5:13FSU +18%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete
- Q2 10:23FSU +15%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 19 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
- Q1 10:53BC +11%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 32 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida State vs. Boston College?
Florida State 31, Boston College 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FSU) was correct.
| FSU | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 351 | Total yards | 457 |
| 223 | Passing yards | 305 |
| 128 | Rushing yards | 152 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 1-9 | 3rd down | 8-19 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 4-5 |
| 15/24 | Comp/Att | 20/34 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 18-131 |
| 26:10 | Possession | 33:50 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:22 BC field goal on 4th & 3 at FSU 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:19BCThomas Castellanos 7 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)31–29
- Q4 11:18BCKhari Johnson 18 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–22
- Q3 1:02BCKye Robichaux 1 Yd Run (Liam Connor PAT failed)31–16
- Q3 11:20FSUDJ Lundy 1 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)31–10
- Q3 12:28FSUPreston Daniel 4 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)24–10
- Q2 1:27FSUTrey Benson 2 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–10
- Q2 10:23FSUJaheim Bell 19 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)10–10
- Q2 13:22BCLiam Connor 21 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 5:59FSURyan Fitzgerald 30 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:53BCLewis Bond 32 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Liam Connor Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BC Elo 1309, FSU Elo 1895 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BC +21 (10% to win) — 4.5 points clear of BC's market line of +25.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida State leads 16–6 · 36% have been one-possession games
| FSU | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.3 (#20) | CORE overall | -1.5 (#68) |
| +3 / -13 | offense / defense | +2 / +3 |
| 2.70 | points / drive | 2.28 |
| 1.47 | allowed / drive | 2.57 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +8 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →