Dayton vs. San Diego: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Dayton2-1
San Diego0-3
▸Final
Torero StadiumConference game
DAYTTeam statsSAN
288Total yards404
132Pass262
156Rush142
19First downs19
5-143rd down8-14
6Turnovers0
24:54Possession35:06
- Q4 3:16SAN Eric Haney 27 Yd Interception Return (Aidan Lehman Kick)25–40
- Q4 12:43DAYTCole Dow 1 Yd Run (Dante Casciola Pass to Gavin Lochow for Two-Point Conversion)25–33
- Q3 10:15DAYTAlec Keathley 15 Yd pass from Cole Dow (Sam Webster Kick)17–33
- Q2 0:33SAN Isaiah Smith 4 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)10–33
- Q2 3:34DAYTCole Dow 20 Yd Run (Sam Webster Kick)10–27
- Q2 8:30SAN Isaiah Williams 14 Yd Run (Aidan Lehman PAT failed)3–27
- Q2 9:32SAN Ja'seem Reed 23 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)3–21
- Q1 0:24DAYTSam Webster 38 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 4:27SAN Isaiah Williams 13 Yd Run (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:09SAN Josh Heverly 33 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
SAN −3.5
Against the number
SAN covered
line SAN −3.5
What the numbers say
- SAN lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 20% explosive on a 37% success rate
Kickoff147 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
SAN (top)DAYT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SAN 100%
Closing line
SAN −3.5
Closing total
47.5
Model line
—
Actual result
DAYT 25 – 40 SAN
Dayton
- PassCole Dow 4/9, 76 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushMichael Neel 17 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecDerek Willits 3 REC, 48 YDS
San Diego
- PassGrant Sergent 19/26, 262 YDS, 3 TD
- RushIsaiah Williams 19 CAR, 109 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJa'seem Reed 7 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
27.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
129
Points / snap
0.50
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSAN up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,242 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
96%
SAN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Dayton vs. San Diego?
Dayton 25, San Diego 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SAN ) was correct.
DAYT
SAN
33%
Success rate
37%
-0.13
EPA / pass
0.50
0.10
EPA / rush
0.15
31%
Early-down success
30%
31%
Pass success
43%
35%
Rush success
30%
12%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
20%
33%
Stuffed rush rate
30%
42%
Pass rate
50%
7.4
Avg 3rd-down distance
8.4
DAYT
7.4 yards to go on 3rd down
69 scrimmage snaps
SAN
8.4 yards to go on 3rd down
60 scrimmage snaps
| DAYT | SAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 288 | Total yards | 404 |
| 132 | Passing yards | 262 |
| 156 | Rushing yards | 142 |
| 19 | First downs | 19 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 10/25 | Comp/Att | 19/26 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 10.1 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-62 | Penalties | 12-122 |
| 24:54 | Possession | 35:06 |
DAYT
6/6 with the model
nothing given up
SAN
4/6 with the model
−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 13:59 SAN punt on 4th & 3 at SAN 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.35 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishDAYT 5/13 scoring drives← own end zone →SAN 5/12 scoring drives
SAN PUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 15Q1
DAYTPUNT1 pl, -5 yds· opp 41Q1
SAN TD9 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q1
DAYTINT4 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
SAN TD2 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q1
DAYTFG11 pl, 57 yds· own 22Q1
SAN PUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 36Q1
DAYTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 35Q2
SAN PUNT5 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q2
DAYTFUM1 pl, -3 yds· own 26Q2
SAN TD1 pl, 23 yds· opp 23Q2
DAYTFUM1 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2
SAN TD2 pl, 34 yds· opp 34Q2
DAYTTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
SAN TD7 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q2
DAYTINT4 pl, 27 yds· own 21Q2
DAYTPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q3
SAN PUNT3 pl, -15 yds· own 20Q3
DAYTTD1 pl, 15 yds· opp 15Q3
SAN MISS12 pl, 77 yds· own 19Q3
DAYTTD11 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
SAN MISS12 pl, 64 yds· own 25Q4
DAYTTD3 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q4
DAYTDOWNS12 pl, 41 yds· own 45Q4
SAN Uncateg1 pl, 1 yds· own 14Q4
- Q4 3:16SAN Eric Haney 27 Yd Interception Return (Aidan Lehman Kick)25–40
- Q4 12:43DAYTCole Dow 1 Yd Run (Dante Casciola Pass to Gavin Lochow for Two-Point Conversion)25–33
- Q3 10:15DAYTAlec Keathley 15 Yd pass from Cole Dow (Sam Webster Kick)17–33
- Q2 0:33SAN Isaiah Smith 4 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)10–33
- Q2 3:34DAYTCole Dow 20 Yd Run (Sam Webster Kick)10–27
- Q2 8:30SAN Isaiah Williams 14 Yd Run (Aidan Lehman PAT failed)3–27
- Q2 9:32SAN Ja'seem Reed 23 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)3–21
- Q1 0:24DAYTSam Webster 38 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 4:27SAN Isaiah Williams 13 Yd Run (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:09SAN Josh Heverly 33 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →