Coastal Carolina vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CCUTeam statsUCLA
- Q4 3:26UCLARJ Lopez 47 Yd Field Goal 13–27
- Q4 5:39UCLARJ Lopez 31 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q4 13:59UCLAJ. Michael Sturdivant 62 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)13–21
- Q3 10:08CCUSam Pinckney 9 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Liam Gray Kick)13–14
- Q2 0:00CCULiam Gray 41 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 3:57UCLACarson Steele 14 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)3–14
- Q2 11:12CCULiam Gray 22 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 12:56UCLACarsen Ryan 21 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (RJ Lopez Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UCLA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassGrayson McCall 27/42, 271 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushReese White 8 CAR, 21 YDS
- RecSam Pinckney 9 REC, 139 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDante Moore 7/12, 143 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushCarson Steele 13 CAR, 76 YDS
- RecJ. Michael Sturdivant 5 REC, 136 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCLA up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,674 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:59UCLA +31%
J. Michael Sturdivant 62 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)
- Q3 10:08CCU +19%
Sam Pinckney 9 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Liam Gray Kick)
- Q1 12:56UCLA +12%
Carsen Ryan 21 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (RJ Lopez Kick)
- Q2 3:57UCLA +11%
Carson Steele 14 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)
- Q3 3:57CCU +9%
Reese White run for 5 yds to the CCU 6
- Q3 5:28UCLA +8%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nick Del Grande) to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. UCLA?
Coastal Carolina 13, UCLA 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UCLA) was correct.
| CCU | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 345 | Total yards | 417 |
| 289 | Passing yards | 264 |
| 56 | Rushing yards | 153 |
| 21 | First downs | 19 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 28/43 | Comp/Att | 17/29 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 3-45 | Penalties | 8-55 |
| 34:50 | Possession | 25:10 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:33 CCU punt on 4th & 1 at CCU 19. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.03 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:26UCLARJ Lopez 47 Yd Field Goal 13–27
- Q4 5:39UCLARJ Lopez 31 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q4 13:59UCLAJ. Michael Sturdivant 62 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)13–21
- Q3 10:08CCUSam Pinckney 9 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Liam Gray Kick)13–14
- Q2 0:00CCULiam Gray 41 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 3:57UCLACarson Steele 14 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)3–14
- Q2 11:12CCULiam Gray 22 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 12:56UCLACarsen Ryan 21 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (RJ Lopez Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1622, CCU Elo 1396 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA -11.4 (78% to win) — 4.1 points clear of CCU's market line of -15.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CCU | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.2 (#63) | CORE overall | +9.3 (#34) |
| +2 / +2 | offense / defense | -5 / -15 |
| 2.16 | points / drive | 1.92 |
| 2.17 | allowed / drive | 1.43 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →