BYU vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsARK
- Q4 8:00BYUChase Roberts 7 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Will Ferrin Kick)38–31
- Q3 1:52BYUParker Kingston 20 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Will Ferrin Kick)31–31
- Q3 4:43BYUWill Ferrin 43 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q3 11:41ARKAJ Green 7 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)21–31
- Q2 0:00ARKCam Little 26 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q2 1:43ARKLuke Hasz 19 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)21–21
- Q2 12:54BYULJ Martin 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)21–14
- Q1 2:24BYULJ Martin 45 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)14–14
- Q1 8:28BYUDeion Smith 37 Yd pass from Parker Kingston (Will Ferrin Kick)7–14
- Q1 11:29ARKIsaiah Sategna 88 Yd Punt Return (Cam Little Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:21ARKAJ Green 55 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BYU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassKedon Slovis 13/25, 167 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLJ Martin 23 CAR, 77 YDS, 2 TD
- RecIsaac Rex 4 REC, 57 YDS
- PassKJ Jefferson 24/35, 247 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAJ Green Jr. 9 CAR, 86 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAndrew Armstrong 9 REC, 98 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,328 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 8:00BYU +41%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 7 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
- Q3 1:52BYU +29%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Parker Kingston for 20 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
- Q2 1:43ARK +23%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 19 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)
- Q2 12:54BYU +21%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
- Q1 2:24BYU +18%
LJ Martin run for 45 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
- Q3 11:41ARK +17%
AJ Green run for 7 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. Arkansas?
BYU 38, Arkansas 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BYU | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 281 | Total yards | 424 |
| 204 | Passing yards | 247 |
| 77 | Rushing yards | 177 |
| 17 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 14/26 | Comp/Att | 24/35 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-45 | Penalties | 14-125 |
| 24:50 | Possession | 35:10 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:00BYUChase Roberts 7 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Will Ferrin Kick)38–31
- Q3 1:52BYUParker Kingston 20 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Will Ferrin Kick)31–31
- Q3 4:43BYUWill Ferrin 43 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q3 11:41ARKAJ Green 7 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)21–31
- Q2 0:00ARKCam Little 26 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q2 1:43ARKLuke Hasz 19 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)21–21
- Q2 12:54BYULJ Martin 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)21–14
- Q1 2:24BYULJ Martin 45 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)14–14
- Q1 8:28BYUDeion Smith 37 Yd pass from Parker Kingston (Will Ferrin Kick)7–14
- Q1 11:29ARKIsaiah Sategna 88 Yd Punt Return (Cam Little Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:21ARKAJ Green 55 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1641, BYU Elo 1544 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK -6.3 (67% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#84 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #44 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| BYU | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.3 (#90) | CORE overall | +0.2 (#61) |
| -9 / -3 | offense / defense | -5 / -6 |
| 1.29 | points / drive | 1.60 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →