App State vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
APPTeam statsGAST
- Q4 5:31GASTRobert Lewis 1 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)42–14
- Q4 10:57APPKanye Roberts 20 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)42–7
- Q4 11:57GASTTailique Williams 3 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Diego Medina Kick)35–7
- Q4 14:56APPAnderson Castle 9 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)35–0
- Q3 14:40APPDalton Stroman 77 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)28–0
- Q2 7:18APPKaedin Robinson 3 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)21–0
- Q2 14:52APPMakai Jackson 44 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)14–0
- Q1 1:27APPNate Noel 61 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJoey Aguilar 14/21, 255 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushNate Noel 10 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMakai Jackson 3 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDarren Grainger 15/28, 115 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMarcus Carroll 34 CAR, 113 YDS
- RecRobert Lewis 4 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAPP up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 464 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:27APP +18%
Nate Noel run for 61 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
- Q2 14:52APP +13%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 44 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
- Q2 7:18APP +7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. Georgia State?
App State 42, Georgia State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (APP) was correct.
| APP | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 509 | Total yards | 260 |
| 255 | Passing yards | 121 |
| 254 | Rushing yards | 139 |
| 19 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-10 | 3rd down | 7-19 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 14/21 | Comp/Att | 16/31 |
| 12.1 | Yards per pass | 3.9 |
| 6.5 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-50 | Penalties | 6-69 |
| 27:05 | Possession | 32:55 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:32 APP punt on 4th & 3 at GAST 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.96 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:31GASTRobert Lewis 1 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)42–14
- Q4 10:57APPKanye Roberts 20 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)42–7
- Q4 11:57GASTTailique Williams 3 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Diego Medina Kick)35–7
- Q4 14:56APPAnderson Castle 9 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)35–0
- Q3 14:40APPDalton Stroman 77 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)28–0
- Q2 7:18APPKaedin Robinson 3 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)21–0
- Q2 14:52APPMakai Jackson 44 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)14–0
- Q1 1:27APPNate Noel 61 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1436, APP Elo 1556 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST +2.4 (45% to win) — 4.9 points clear of APP's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#19 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #101 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →App State leads 12–0 · App State has won 12 straight · 17% have been one-possession games
| APP | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.3 (#49) | CORE overall | -2.0 (#72) |
| +8 / +5 | offense / defense | +0 / +2 |
| 2.47 | points / drive | 2.10 |
| 1.84 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →