Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USMTeam statsLT
- Q4 1:32USMAverie Habas 6 Yd Interception Return (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)35–19
- Q4 6:37USMGrayson Gunter 20 Yd pass from Antavious Willis (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)28–19
- Q4 11:58LTTrey Baldwin 43 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Barnes Kick)21–19
- Q4 13:32LTJacob Barnes 39 Yd Field Goal 21–12
- Q2 2:00USMJason Brownlee 39 Yd pass from Frank Gore Jr. (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)21–9
- Q2 4:40LTJacob Barnes 43 Yd Field Goal 14–9
- Q2 7:53USMF. Gore Jr. pass,to J. Brownlee for 9 yds for a TD, (B. Bourgeois KICK)13–6
- Q2 7:53USMJason Brownlee 9 Yd pass from Frank Gore Jr. (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)14–6
- Q2 14:11LTJacob Barnes 43 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 7:25USMF. Gore Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (B. Bourgeois KICK)6–3
- Q1 7:25USMFrank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)7–3
- Q1 13:36LTJacob Barnes 39 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassFrank Gore Jr. 4/8, 75 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDajon Richard 22 CAR, 120 YDS
- RecJason Brownlee 5 REC, 67 YDS, 2 TD
- PassAaron Allen 11/26, 100 YDS, 2 INT
- RushMarcus Williams Jr. 17 CAR, 76 YDS
- RecSmoke Harris 4 REC, 48 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSM up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:07USM +23%
F.Gore pass complete to LT 39. Catch made by J.Brownlee at LT 39. Gain of 39 yards. J.Brownlee for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 7:29USM +16%
F.Gore rushed to LT End Zone for 1 yards. F.Gore for 1 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 7:58USM +13%
F.Gore pass complete to LT 9. Catch made by J.Brownlee at LT 9. Gain of 9 yards. J.Brownlee for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 4:45LT +12%
J.Barnes 43 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-LT, Holder-C.Barajas
- Q4 11:10USM +10%
D.Richard rushed to LT 35 for 15 yards. Tackled by J.Cole at LT 35
- Q3 6:18USM +10%
F.Gore pass INTERCEPTED at LT 14. Intercepted by E.Barnett at LT 14. Pushed out of bounds by USM at USM 40
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech?
Southern Miss 35, Louisiana Tech 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USM | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| 294 | Total yards | 250 |
| 110 | Passing yards | 100 |
| 184 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 17 | First downs | 14 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 8/13 | Comp/Att | 11/26 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 3.8 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 9-52 |
| 35:06 | Possession | 24:54 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:32USMAverie Habas 6 Yd Interception Return (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)35–19
- Q4 6:37USMGrayson Gunter 20 Yd pass from Antavious Willis (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)28–19
- Q4 11:58LTTrey Baldwin 43 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Barnes Kick)21–19
- Q4 13:32LTJacob Barnes 39 Yd Field Goal 21–12
- Q2 2:00USMJason Brownlee 39 Yd pass from Frank Gore Jr. (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)21–9
- Q2 4:40LTJacob Barnes 43 Yd Field Goal 14–9
- Q2 7:53USMF. Gore Jr. pass,to J. Brownlee for 9 yds for a TD, (B. Bourgeois KICK)13–6
- Q2 7:53USMJason Brownlee 9 Yd pass from Frank Gore Jr. (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)14–6
- Q2 14:11LTJacob Barnes 43 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 7:25USMF. Gore Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (B. Bourgeois KICK)6–3
- Q1 7:25USMFrank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)7–3
- Q1 13:36LTJacob Barnes 39 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LT Elo 1268, USM Elo 1066 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LT -10.5 (76% to win) — 5.0 points clear of USM's market line of -15.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#25 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #21 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Southern Miss leads 20–13 · 39% have been one-possession games
| USM | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.4 (#117) | CORE overall | -7.2 (#95) |
| -13 / +9 | offense / defense | -3 / +5 |
| 0.83 | points / drive | 2.16 |
| 2.04 | allowed / drive | 2.48 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →