East Tennessee State vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

East Tennessee State

▸0023

Vanderbilt

03

Final

FirstBank Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
EAST	0	10	3	10	23
VAN	3	0	0	0	3

EASTTeam statsVAN

314Total yards321

135Pass236

179Rush85

13First downs23

6-153rd down5-15

0Turnovers3

32:47Possession27:13

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:29EASTTyler Keltner 34 Yd Field Goal 23–3
• Q4 8:26EASTStephen Scott 27 Yd Fumble Return (Tyler Keltner Kick)20–3
• Q3 8:42EASTTyler Keltner 25 Yd Field Goal 13–3
• Q2 2:24EASTTyler Keltner 41 Yd Field Goal 10–3
• Q2 7:20EASTMalik Murray 5 Yd pass from Tyler Riddell (Tyler Keltner Kick)7–3
• Q1 4:15VANJoseph Bulovas 53 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

VAN −21

Against the number

EAST covered

line VAN −21

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

VAN 100%50%EAST 100%

Kickoff157 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

VAN (top)EAST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: VAN 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

VAN −21

Closing total

45.0

Model line

—

Actual result

EAST 23 – 3 VAN

consensus, liveVAN −21total 45.0

Leaders

East Tennessee State

• PassTyler Ridell 13/22, 135 YDS, 1 TD
• RushQuay Holmes 23 CAR, 149 YDS
• RecWill Huzzie 4 REC, 62 YDS

Vanderbilt

• PassKen Seals 20/35, 195 YDS, 2 INT
• RushRay Davis 15 CAR, 58 YDS
• RecWill Sheppard 9 REC, 84 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.9sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

140

Points / snap

0.19

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

EAST up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

88%

EAST went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WJacksonville State vs UTEP17-14WMichigan State vs Central Michigan31-7LTexas Southern vs Prairie View A&M34-37WHouston vs UTSA17-14WChattanooga vs Kennesaw State27-20

Fourth downs

16 calls

VAN gave up 1.3 points to the model on fourth down.EAST 5/6 · VAN 4/9 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of East Tennessee State vs. Vanderbilt?

East Tennessee State 23, Vanderbilt 3.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked VAN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

EAST

VAN

32%

Success rate

41%

0.19

EPA / pass

-0.15

0.04

EPA / rush

-0.17

32%

Early-down success

43%

28%

Pass success

41%

35%

Rush success

41%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

5%

16%

Stuffed rush rate

21%

40%

Pass rate

63%

7.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.9

EAST

7.1 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

VAN

6.9 yards to go on 3rd down

78 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

EAST		VAN
314	Total yards	321
135	Passing yards	236
179	Rushing yards	85
13	First downs	23
6-15	3rd down	5-15
0-1	4th down	1-2
13/22	Comp/Att	24/44
6.1	Yards per pass	5.4
4.8	Yards per rush	2.7
0	Turnovers	3
7-75	Penalties	8-70
32:47	Possession	27:13

Fourth downs

16 calls

EAST

5/6 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

VAN

4/9 with the model

−1.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 11:54 VAN punt on 4th & 11 at EAST 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

EAST 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →VAN 2/11 scoring drives

VANPUNT5 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 1Q1

VANPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· opp 47Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 20Q1

VANFG11 pl, 35 yds· own 30Q1

EASTDOWNS8 pl, 35 yds· own 25Q1

VANPUNT8 pl, 23 yds· own 40Q1

EASTTD9 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

VANPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q2

EASTFG9 pl, 53 yds· own 24Q2

VANPUNT8 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q2

EASTEND2 pl, 26 yds· own 11Q2

EASTFG10 pl, 68 yds· own 25Q3

VANDOWNS12 pl, 41 yds· own 25Q3

EASTPUNT6 pl, 16 yds· own 34Q3

VANPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 15Q4

EASTPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 30Q4

VANFUM5 pl, 12 yds· own 15Q4

EASTTD0 pl, 0 yds· opp 3Q4

VANINT10 pl, 74 yds· own 20Q4

EASTFG4 pl, 3 yds· opp 19Q4

VANINT8 pl, 69 yds· own 10Q4

EASTEND3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:29EASTTyler Keltner 34 Yd Field Goal 23–3
• Q4 8:26EASTStephen Scott 27 Yd Fumble Return (Tyler Keltner Kick)20–3
• Q3 8:42EASTTyler Keltner 25 Yd Field Goal 13–3
• Q2 2:24EASTTyler Keltner 41 Yd Field Goal 10–3
• Q2 7:20EASTMalik Murray 5 Yd pass from Tyler Riddell (Tyler Keltner Kick)7–3
• Q1 4:15VANJoseph Bulovas 53 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

East Tennessee State were +21 — a 9% shot

#3 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #12 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.

The 2021 upset archive →

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →