Wake Forest vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WAKETeam statsLOU
- Q4 2:17LOUMarshon Ford 22 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (James Turner Kick)21–45
- Q4 5:36LOUJames Turner 40 Yd Field Goal 21–38
- Q4 7:17LOUJordan Watkins 23 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)21–35
- Q4 13:24WAKEJaquarii Roberson 37 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Sam Hartman Pass to Jaquarii Roberson for Two-Point Conversion)21–28
- Q3 5:26WAKENick Sciba 31 Yd Field Goal 13–28
- Q3 8:03LOUFrancis Sherman 4 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (James Turner Kick)10–28
- Q2 1:04LOUHassan Hall 1 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)10–21
- Q2 4:09LOUMalik Cunningham 5 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)10–14
- Q2 4:57WAKENick Sciba 45 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 6:46LOUHassan Hall 2 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:04WAKETaylor Morin 10 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LOU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WAKE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 6.5
- PassSam Hartman 17/41, 224 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushChristian Beal-Smith 14 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecJaquarii Roberson 9 REC, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMalik Cunningham 16/22, 195 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJalen Mitchell 20 CAR, 168 YDS
- RecDez Fitzpatrick 6 REC, 77 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLOU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 4:09LOU +23%
Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
- Q2 6:46LOU +21%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
- Q2 1:04LOU +20%
Hassan Hall run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK)
- Q4 13:24WAKE +18%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 37 yds for a TD S Hartman kick attempt failed, PENALTY LOU holding (Hayes, I.) 2 yards to the LOU1, NO PLAY. (Sam Ha…
- Q1 8:04WAKE +18%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 10 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) LOUISVILLE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
- Q4 7:17LOU +14%
Jordan Watkins run for 23 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Louisville?
Wake Forest 21, Louisville 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WAKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WAKE | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 351 | Total yards | 453 |
| 224 | Passing yards | 199 |
| 127 | Rushing yards | 254 |
| 17 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 17/41 | Comp/Att | 17/23 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-39 | Penalties | 7-32 |
| 23:04 | Possession | 36:56 |
Costliest call
Q1 15:00 WAKE punt on 4th & 5 at LOU 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.71 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:17LOUMarshon Ford 22 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (James Turner Kick)21–45
- Q4 5:36LOUJames Turner 40 Yd Field Goal 21–38
- Q4 7:17LOUJordan Watkins 23 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)21–35
- Q4 13:24WAKEJaquarii Roberson 37 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Sam Hartman Pass to Jaquarii Roberson for Two-Point Conversion)21–28
- Q3 5:26WAKENick Sciba 31 Yd Field Goal 13–28
- Q3 8:03LOUFrancis Sherman 4 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (James Turner Kick)10–28
- Q2 1:04LOUHassan Hall 1 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)10–21
- Q2 4:09LOUMalik Cunningham 5 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)10–14
- Q2 4:57WAKENick Sciba 45 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 6:46LOUHassan Hall 2 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:04WAKETaylor Morin 10 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LOU Elo 1519, WAKE Elo 1606 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LOU +1.1 (48% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#25 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #97 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Louisville leads 7–3 · 30% have been one-possession games
| WAKE | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.5 (#54) | CORE overall | +6.2 (#39) |
| +2 / -1 | offense / defense | +7 / +1 |
| 2.37 | points / drive | 2.64 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →