Maryland vs. Penn State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MDTeam statsPSU
- Q4 0:11PSUParker Washington 1 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–19
- Q4 10:16PSUParker Washington 23 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–13
- Q3 12:55MDChance Campbell 34 Yd Fumble Return (Joseph Petrino Kick)35–7
- Q2 0:45MDDontay Demus Jr. 34 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)28–7
- Q2 6:32PSUJahan Dotson 20 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Jake Pinegar Kick)21–7
- Q2 11:49MDJake Funk 38 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)21–0
- Q1 0:19MDRakim Jarrett 62 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:27MDRakim Jarrett 42 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MD lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassTaulia Tagovailoa 18/26, 282 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJake Funk 16 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRakim Jarrett 5 REC, 144 YDS, 2 TD
- PassSean Clifford 27/57, 340 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushDevyn Ford 9 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecJahan Dotson 9 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMD up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:49MD +24%
Jake Funk run for 38 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)
- Q2 0:45MD +24%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)
- Q3 12:55MD +18%
Sean Clifford sacked by Nick Cross for a loss of 10 yards Sean Clifford fumbled, recovered by Mary Chance Campbell, return for 0 yards, return for 34 yds (Joseph Petri…
- Q1 0:19MD +17%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 62 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)
- Q2 6:32PSU +15%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 20 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
- Q2 6:32MD +10%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Dontay Demus Jr., broken up by Jonathan Sutherland
FAQ
What was the final score of Maryland vs. Penn State?
Maryland 35, Penn State 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked PSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MD | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 405 | Total yards | 434 |
| 282 | Passing yards | 340 |
| 123 | Rushing yards | 94 |
| 16 | First downs | 30 |
| 9-16 | 3rd down | 9-20 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 18/26 | Comp/Att | 27/57 |
| 10.8 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-55 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 26:22 | Possession | 33:38 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:32 MD punt on 4th & 7 at PSU 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.47 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:11PSUParker Washington 1 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–19
- Q4 10:16PSUParker Washington 23 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–13
- Q3 12:55MDChance Campbell 34 Yd Fumble Return (Joseph Petrino Kick)35–7
- Q2 0:45MDDontay Demus Jr. 34 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)28–7
- Q2 6:32PSUJahan Dotson 20 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Jake Pinegar Kick)21–7
- Q2 11:49MDJake Funk 38 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)21–0
- Q1 0:19MDRakim Jarrett 62 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:27MDRakim Jarrett 42 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PSU Elo 1817, MD Elo 1214 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PSU -26.5 (95% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#2 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #1 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Penn State leads 44–3–1 · Penn State has won 4 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| MD | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.1 (#80) | CORE overall | +3.4 (#52) |
| +1 / +5 | offense / defense | -0 / -4 |
| 1.74 | points / drive | 2.42 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 2.03 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 25% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →