Louisiana vs. Iowa State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULTeam statsISU
- Q4 0:10ULTrey Ragas 2 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)31–14
- Q4 13:58ULEric Garror 83 Yd Punt Return (Kenneth Almendares Kick)24–14
- Q3 2:02ULPeter LeBlanc 78 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Kenneth Almendares Kick)17–14
- Q2 0:00ULNate Snyder 30 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 1:17ISUBreece Hall 11 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick)7–14
- Q2 4:14ULChris Smith 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Nate Snyder Kick)7–7
- Q2 4:28ISUKene Nwangwu 1 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassLevi Lewis 13/21, 154 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTrey Ragas 14 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD
- RecPeter LeBlanc 5 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrock Purdy 16/35, 145 YDS, 1 INT
- RushBreece Hall 20 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RecXavier Hutchinson 4 REC, 43 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUL up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:02UL +41%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 78 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
- Q4 13:58UL +30%
Joe Rivera punt for 42 yds, Eric Garror returns for 83 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
- Q2 1:17ISU +21%
Breece Hall run for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)
- Q2 4:28ISU +20%
Kene Nwangwu run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)
- Q2 4:00UL +20%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 15 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST down
- Q4 14:45ISU +10%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 5 yds to the IowSt 41
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. Iowa State?
Louisiana 31, Iowa State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ISU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UL | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 272 | Total yards | 303 |
| 154 | Passing yards | 145 |
| 118 | Rushing yards | 158 |
| 14 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 13/21 | Comp/Att | 16/35 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 4.1 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-22 | Penalties | 3-24 |
| 27:41 | Possession | 32:19 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:19 ISU punt on 4th & 4 at UL 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.61 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:10ULTrey Ragas 2 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)31–14
- Q4 13:58ULEric Garror 83 Yd Punt Return (Kenneth Almendares Kick)24–14
- Q3 2:02ULPeter LeBlanc 78 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Kenneth Almendares Kick)17–14
- Q2 0:00ULNate Snyder 30 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 1:17ISUBreece Hall 11 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick)7–14
- Q2 4:14ULChris Smith 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Nate Snyder Kick)7–7
- Q2 4:28ISUKene Nwangwu 1 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ISU Elo 1663, UL Elo 1651 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ISU -2.9 (59% to win) — 9.6 points clear of UL's market line of -12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#14 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #23 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| UL | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.6 (#21) | CORE overall | +20.5 (#7) |
| +7 / -6 | offense / defense | +12 / -9 |
| 2.79 | points / drive | 2.81 |
| 1.80 | allowed / drive | 1.56 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →