Ball State vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BALLTeam statsSJSU
- Q3 0:01SJSUJermaine Braddock 8 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)34–13
- Q3 9:28SJSUCharlie Bostic III 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)34–6
- Q3 9:42BALLYo'Heinz Tyler 48 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jacob Lewis Kick)34–0
- Q1 1:04BALLDrew Plitt 1 Yd Run (Jacob Lewis Kick)27–0
- Q1 5:15BALLTye Evans 3 Yd Run (Jacob Lewis Kick)20–0
- Q1 10:00BALLWill Jones 3 Yd Run (Jacob Lewis Kick)13–0
- Q1 12:47BALLAntonio Phillips 53 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Lewis PAT failed)6–0
How the model called it
- PassDrew Plitt 12/19, 217 YDS, 1 TD
- RushWill Jones 22 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- RecYo'Heinz Tyler 4 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- PassNick Starkel 25/42, 268 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushTyler Nevens 7 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecTre Walker 7 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBALL up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:00BALL +16%
Will Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Lewis KICK)
- Q1 5:15BALL +11%
Tye Evans run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Lewis KICK)
- Q1 1:04BALL +6%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Lewis KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. San José State?
Ball State 34, San José State 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BALL | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 402 | Total yards | 347 |
| 217 | Passing yards | 278 |
| 185 | Rushing yards | 69 |
| 21 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 1-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 12/19 | Comp/Att | 26/46 |
| 11.4 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 8-64 | Penalties | 8-80 |
| 31:17 | Possession | 28:43 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:49 BALL punt on 4th & 1 at BALL 22. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.91 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 0:01SJSUJermaine Braddock 8 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)34–13
- Q3 9:28SJSUCharlie Bostic III 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)34–6
- Q3 9:42BALLYo'Heinz Tyler 48 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jacob Lewis Kick)34–0
- Q1 1:04BALLDrew Plitt 1 Yd Run (Jacob Lewis Kick)27–0
- Q1 5:15BALLTye Evans 3 Yd Run (Jacob Lewis Kick)20–0
- Q1 10:00BALLWill Jones 3 Yd Run (Jacob Lewis Kick)13–0
- Q1 12:47BALLAntonio Phillips 53 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Lewis PAT failed)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SJSU Elo 1568, BALL Elo 1539 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects SJSU -1.2 (54% to win) — 7.8 points clear of BALL's market line of -9. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#16 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #46 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| BALL | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.8 (#35) | CORE overall | +8.0 (#36) |
| +6 / -3 | offense / defense | +3 / -5 |
| 2.83 | points / drive | 2.29 |
| 1.90 | allowed / drive | 1.60 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →