Washington State vs. California: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WSUTeam statsCAL
- Q4 0:05WSURenard Bell 1 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon ( PAT failed)20–33
- Q4 2:26CALDevon Modster 13 Yd Run (Greg Thomas Kick)14–33
- Q4 6:15CALMakai Polk 52 Yd pass from Devon Modster (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–26
- Q3 3:27WSUBlake Mazza 35 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q3 10:14CALChristopher Brown Jr. 13 Yd pass from Devon Modster (Greg Thomas Kick)11–20
- Q2 0:45WSUBrandon Arconado 0 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)11–13
- Q2 14:53CALGavin Reinwald 9 Yd pass from Devon Modster (Greg Thomas Kick)5–13
- Q1 3:34WSUBlake Mazza 30 Yd Field Goal 5–6
- Q1 14:15WSUGeorge Hicks III Defensive PAT Conversion 2–6
- Q1 14:15CALChristopher Brown Jr. 27 Yd Run (Greg Thomas PAT blocked)0–6
How the model called it
- PassAnthony Gordon 45/58, 407 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMax Borghi 8 CAR, 19 YDS
- RecBrandon Arconado 12 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDevon Modster 16/24, 230 YDS, 3 TD
- RushChristopher Brooks 19 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMakai Polk 3 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCAL up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:14CAL +26%
Devon Modster pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)
- Q2 14:53CAL +23%
Devon Modster pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 9 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)
- Q2 0:45WSU +19%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Brandon Arconado for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q4 15:00CAL +18%
Devon Modster pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the WshSt 22
- Q4 6:15CAL +15%
Devon Modster pass complete to Makai Polk for 52 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q4 9:10CAL +14%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Trevon Clark, broken up by George Hicks III
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. California?
Washington State 20, California 33.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WSU | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 423 | Total yards | 426 |
| 407 | Passing yards | 230 |
| 16 | Rushing yards | 196 |
| 23 | First downs | 19 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 45/58 | Comp/Att | 16/24 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 1.1 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-98 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 31:34 | Possession | 28:26 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:15 WSU go for it on 4th & 15 at WSU 35. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.23 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:05WSURenard Bell 1 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon ( PAT failed)20–33
- Q4 2:26CALDevon Modster 13 Yd Run (Greg Thomas Kick)14–33
- Q4 6:15CALMakai Polk 52 Yd pass from Devon Modster (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–26
- Q3 3:27WSUBlake Mazza 35 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q3 10:14CALChristopher Brown Jr. 13 Yd pass from Devon Modster (Greg Thomas Kick)11–20
- Q2 0:45WSUBrandon Arconado 0 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)11–13
- Q2 14:53CALGavin Reinwald 9 Yd pass from Devon Modster (Greg Thomas Kick)5–13
- Q1 3:34WSUBlake Mazza 30 Yd Field Goal 5–6
- Q1 14:15WSUGeorge Hicks III Defensive PAT Conversion 2–6
- Q1 14:15CALChristopher Brown Jr. 27 Yd Run (Greg Thomas PAT blocked)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CAL Elo 1455, WSU Elo 1709 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CAL +7.8 (31% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#50 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #48 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →California leads 49–30–5 · 37% have been one-possession games
| WSU | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.7 (#58) | CORE overall | +0.7 (#59) |
| +9 / +9 | offense / defense | -6 / -6 |
| 3.12 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 2.84 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +32 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →