Louisiana vs. Ohio: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULTeam statsOHIO
- Q4 3:36ULJa'Marcus Bradley 3 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Stevie Artigue Kick)45–25
- Q4 4:30ULElijah Mitchell 2 Yd Run (Stevie Artigue Kick)38–25
- Q4 7:54OHIOShane Hooks 21 Yd pass from Nathan Rourke (Louie Zervos Kick)31–25
- Q4 11:04OHIOJa'Vahri Portis 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–18
- Q4 13:45ULTrey Ragas 15 Yd Run (Stevie Artigue Kick)31–12
- Q3 0:18OHIOJa'Vahri Portis 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)24–12
- Q3 4:13ULNick Ralston 2 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Stevie Artigue Kick)24–6
- Q3 10:19ULElijah Mitchell 2 Yd Run (Stevie Artigue Kick)17–6
- Q2 0:00ULStevie Artigue 27 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 1:58OHIOLouie Zervos 49 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q2 10:12OHIOLouie Zervos 48 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 2:19ULElijah Mitchell 2 Yd Run (Stevie Artigue Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OHIO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 5.9
- PassLevi Lewis 19/29, 188 YDS, 2 TD
- RushElijah Mitchell 17 CAR, 143 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJa'Marcus Bradley 5 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- PassNathan Rourke 18/38, 277 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushNathan Rourke 9 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecShane Hooks 3 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUL up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:19UL +27%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
- Q4 7:54OHIO +26%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Shane Hooks for 21 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
- Q4 4:38UL +25%
, Lewis, Levi pass incomplete to Williams, Jalen, PENALTY OHIO pass interference (BROOKS, M.) 9 yards to the OHIO2, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY
- Q1 2:19UL +18%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
- Q3 4:13UL +16%
Nick Ralston 2 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Stevie Artigue Kick)
- Q3 0:18OHIO +12%
Ja'Vahri Portis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. Ohio?
Louisiana 45, Ohio 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OHIO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UL | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 489 | Total yards | 380 |
| 204 | Passing yards | 277 |
| 285 | Rushing yards | 103 |
| 25 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 20/30 | Comp/Att | 18/38 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 6.2 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 16-161 | Penalties | 5-44 |
| 32:00 | Possession | 28:00 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:16 UL punt on 4th & 1 at UL 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:36ULJa'Marcus Bradley 3 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Stevie Artigue Kick)45–25
- Q4 4:30ULElijah Mitchell 2 Yd Run (Stevie Artigue Kick)38–25
- Q4 7:54OHIOShane Hooks 21 Yd pass from Nathan Rourke (Louie Zervos Kick)31–25
- Q4 11:04OHIOJa'Vahri Portis 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–18
- Q4 13:45ULTrey Ragas 15 Yd Run (Stevie Artigue Kick)31–12
- Q3 0:18OHIOJa'Vahri Portis 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)24–12
- Q3 4:13ULNick Ralston 2 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Stevie Artigue Kick)24–6
- Q3 10:19ULElijah Mitchell 2 Yd Run (Stevie Artigue Kick)17–6
- Q2 0:00ULStevie Artigue 27 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 1:58OHIOLouie Zervos 49 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q2 10:12OHIOLouie Zervos 48 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 2:19ULElijah Mitchell 2 Yd Run (Stevie Artigue Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OHIO Elo 1684, UL Elo 1418 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OHIO -13 (81% to win) — 10.0 points clear of OHIO's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#41 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #92 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →| UL | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.8 (#31) | CORE overall | -4.9 (#81) |
| +11 / +1 | offense / defense | +8 / +13 |
| 3.06 | points / drive | 2.84 |
| 1.89 | allowed / drive | 2.27 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →