Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsLT
- Q4 4:27WKUD'Andre Ferby 36 Yd Run (Alex Rinella Kick)30–15
- Q3 11:53LTBailey Hale 20 Yd Field Goal 23–15
- Q2 0:00LTBailey Hale 33 Yd Field Goal 23–12
- Q2 0:31LTTeam Safety 23–9
- Q2 1:43LTIsrael Tucker 19 Yd Run (Bailey Hale Kick)23–7
- Q2 12:16WKUD'Andre Ferby 1 Yd Run (Alex Rinella Kick)23–0
- Q2 13:26WKUTeam Safety 16–0
- Q1 5:01WKUMik'Quan Deane 10 Yd pass from Steven Duncan (Alex Rinella Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:03WKULucky Jackson 18 Yd Run (Alex Rinella Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassSteven Duncan 11/22, 92 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJosh Samuel 13 CAR, 71 YDS
- RecMik'Quan Deane 2 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJ'Mar Smith 24/44, 280 YDS, 1 INT
- RushIsrael Tucker 10 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAdrian Hardy 9 REC, 125 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:01WKU +21%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 10 yds for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK)
- Q1 10:03WKU +18%
Lucky Jackson run for 18 yds for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK)
- Q4 10:50WKU +13%
Steven Duncan run for 1 yd to the WKent 29
- Q2 12:16WKU +13%
D'Andre Ferby run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK)
- Q4 15:00WKU +12%
Steven Duncan run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 27
- Q4 4:27WKU +12%
D'Andre Ferby run for 36 yds for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech?
Western Kentucky 30, Louisiana Tech 15.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WKU | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| 288 | Total yards | 380 |
| 92 | Passing yards | 319 |
| 196 | Rushing yards | 61 |
| 18 | First downs | 23 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 11/23 | Comp/Att | 28/53 |
| 4.0 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 5-67 |
| 34:03 | Possession | 25:57 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:16 WKU punt on 4th & 1 at WKU 10. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:27WKUD'Andre Ferby 36 Yd Run (Alex Rinella Kick)30–15
- Q3 11:53LTBailey Hale 20 Yd Field Goal 23–15
- Q2 0:00LTBailey Hale 33 Yd Field Goal 23–12
- Q2 0:31LTTeam Safety 23–9
- Q2 1:43LTIsrael Tucker 19 Yd Run (Bailey Hale Kick)23–7
- Q2 12:16WKUD'Andre Ferby 1 Yd Run (Alex Rinella Kick)23–0
- Q2 13:26WKUTeam Safety 16–0
- Q1 5:01WKUMik'Quan Deane 10 Yd pass from Steven Duncan (Alex Rinella Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:03WKULucky Jackson 18 Yd Run (Alex Rinella Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LT Elo 1406, WKU Elo 1245 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LT -8.8 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#50 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #36 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Western Kentucky leads 5–4 · 67% have been one-possession games
| WKU | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.4 (#103) | CORE overall | -2.7 (#80) |
| -9 / +4 | offense / defense | -6 / -4 |
| 1.67 | points / drive | 1.71 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 1.93 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →