Houston vs. SMU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsSMU
- Q4 0:48HOUTeam Safety 16–38
- Q4 3:50SMUBraeden West 10 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick)14–38
- Q4 12:27SMUJosh Williams 26 Yd Field Goal 14–31
- Q3 7:52HOUTyler McCloskey 2 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)14–28
- Q2 0:13SMUJames Proche 28 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)7–28
- Q2 7:59HOUSteven Dunbar 5 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)7–21
- Q2 10:58SMUCourtland Sutton 2 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)0–21
- Q2 14:52SMUJeremiah Gaines 31 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:25SMUBen Hicks 1 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SMU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassGreg Ward 21/33, 241 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDuke Catalon 17 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecChance Allen 5 REC, 84 YDS
- PassBen Hicks 16/31, 228 YDS, 3 TD
- RushBraeden West 18 CAR, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCourtland Sutton 7 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSMU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:13SMU +30%
James Proche 28 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)
- Q2 10:58SMU +22%
Courtland Sutton 2 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)
- Q2 14:52SMU +20%
Jeremiah Gaines 31 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)
- Q2 7:59HOU +20%
Steven Dunbar 5 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)
- Q3 7:52HOU +17%
Tyler McCloskey 2 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)
- Q3 5:51SMU +12%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 4 yds to the Houst 40
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. SMU?
Houston 16, SMU 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked HOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HOU | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 303 | Total yards | 406 |
| 241 | Passing yards | 228 |
| 62 | Rushing yards | 178 |
| 13 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-16 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 21/33 | Comp/Att | 16/31 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-55 | Penalties | 6-62 |
| 30:22 | Possession | 29:38 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:50 HOU field goal on 4th & 2 at SMU 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:48HOUTeam Safety 16–38
- Q4 3:50SMUBraeden West 10 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick)14–38
- Q4 12:27SMUJosh Williams 26 Yd Field Goal 14–31
- Q3 7:52HOUTyler McCloskey 2 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)14–28
- Q2 0:13SMUJames Proche 28 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)7–28
- Q2 7:59HOUSteven Dunbar 5 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)7–21
- Q2 10:58SMUCourtland Sutton 2 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)0–21
- Q2 14:52SMUJeremiah Gaines 31 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:25SMUBen Hicks 1 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SMU Elo 1212, HOU Elo 1909 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SMU +25.5 (6% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#4 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #4 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds · #14 of 61 in 2016 by biggest poll gap.
The 2016 upset archive →Houston leads 22–14–1 · 27% have been one-possession games
| HOU | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.5 (#31) | CORE overall | -4.0 (#82) |
| +1 / -9 | offense / defense | -4 / -0 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 1.89 |
| 1.66 | allowed / drive | 2.44 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →