Western Michigan vs. Ohio: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WMUTeam statsOHIO
- Q4 4:33WMULeVante Bellamy 56 Yd Run (Andrew Haldeman Kick)49–14
- Q4 8:28OHIODaz'mond Patterson 2 Yd Run (Josiah Yazdani Kick)42–14
- Q4 12:23WMUCorey Davis 25 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Andrew Haldeman Kick)42–7
- Q3 2:07WMUJarvion Franklin 20 Yd Run (Andrew Haldeman Kick)35–7
- Q3 5:29WMUZach Terrell 4 Yd Run (Andrew Haldeman Kick)28–7
- Q3 12:18WMUJamauri Bogan 67 Yd Run (Andrew Haldeman Kick)21–7
- Q2 0:17OHIOSebastian Smith 35 Yd pass from Derrius Vick (Josiah Yazdani Kick)14–7
- Q2 1:31WMUDaniel Braverman 27 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Andrew Haldeman Kick)14–0
- Q2 3:33WMUDaniel Braverman 7 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Andrew Haldeman Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassZach Terrell 14/20, 137 YDS, 3 TD
- RushLeVante Bellamy 9 CAR, 149 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDaniel Braverman 6 REC, 56 YDS, 2 TD
- PassDerrius Vick 18/34, 167 YDS, 1 TD
- RushGreg Windham 6 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecJordan Reid 7 REC, 109 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWMU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:31WMU +24%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 27 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)
- Q2 3:33WMU +24%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)
- Q3 12:18WMU +20%
Jamauri Bogan run for 67 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)
- Q2 0:17OHIO +20%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 35 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)
- Q3 5:29WMU +10%
Zach Terrell run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)
- Q2 0:11WMU +5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 28
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Michigan vs. Ohio?
Western Michigan 49, Ohio 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OHIO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WMU | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 567 | Total yards | 354 |
| 137 | Passing yards | 255 |
| 430 | Rushing yards | 99 |
| 23 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-11 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 14/20 | Comp/Att | 22/40 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 9.8 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-45 | Penalties | 3-28 |
| 32:45 | Possession | 27:15 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:49 OHIO go for it on 4th & 12 at WMU 15. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.97 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:33WMULeVante Bellamy 56 Yd Run (Andrew Haldeman Kick)49–14
- Q4 8:28OHIODaz'mond Patterson 2 Yd Run (Josiah Yazdani Kick)42–14
- Q4 12:23WMUCorey Davis 25 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Andrew Haldeman Kick)42–7
- Q3 2:07WMUJarvion Franklin 20 Yd Run (Andrew Haldeman Kick)35–7
- Q3 5:29WMUZach Terrell 4 Yd Run (Andrew Haldeman Kick)28–7
- Q3 12:18WMUJamauri Bogan 67 Yd Run (Andrew Haldeman Kick)21–7
- Q2 0:17OHIOSebastian Smith 35 Yd pass from Derrius Vick (Josiah Yazdani Kick)14–7
- Q2 1:31WMUDaniel Braverman 27 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Andrew Haldeman Kick)14–0
- Q2 3:33WMUDaniel Braverman 7 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Andrew Haldeman Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OHIO Elo 1442, WMU Elo 1377 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OHIO -5 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#5 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #75 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Western Michigan leads 31–18 · 39% have been one-possession games
| WMU | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.0 (#54) | CORE overall | -4.7 (#82) |
| +11 / +6 | offense / defense | -7 / -2 |
| 2.91 | points / drive | 1.91 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 1.82 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →