Troy vs. Georgia Southern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TROYTeam statsGASO
- Q4 1:18TROYKhary Franklin 3 Yd Run (Ryan Kay Kick)10–42
- Q4 5:58GASOFavian Upshaw 19 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)3–42
- Q4 14:21GASOAlfred Ramsby 9 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)3–35
- Q3 10:47GASOKevin Ellison 2 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)3–28
- Q2 7:16GASOAlfred Ramsby 4 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)3–21
- Q2 14:45TROYRyan Kay 25 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 3:51GASOKevin Ellison 1 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:26GASOKevin Ellison 6 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TROY played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GASO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.0 vs 3rd & 4.0
- PassBrandon Silvers 3/7, 10 YDS
- RushKhary Franklin 8 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTeddy Ruben 1 REC, 7 YDS
- PassKevin Ellison 5/9, 31 YDS
- RushKevin Ellison 13 CAR, 99 YDS, 3 TD
- RecKentrellis Showers 1 REC, 16 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGASO up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Troy vs. Georgia Southern?
Troy 10, Georgia Southern 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GASO) was correct.
| TROY | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 154 | Total yards | 461 |
| 13 | Passing yards | 40 |
| 141 | Rushing yards | 421 |
| 9 | First downs | 28 |
| 2-10 | 3rd down | 10-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 4/11 | Comp/Att | 6/10 |
| 1.2 | Yards per pass | 4.0 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 6.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 21:17 | Possession | 38:43 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:16 TROY punt on 4th & 1 at TROY 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:18TROYKhary Franklin 3 Yd Run (Ryan Kay Kick)10–42
- Q4 5:58GASOFavian Upshaw 19 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)3–42
- Q4 14:21GASOAlfred Ramsby 9 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)3–35
- Q3 10:47GASOKevin Ellison 2 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)3–28
- Q2 7:16GASOAlfred Ramsby 4 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)3–21
- Q2 14:45TROYRyan Kay 25 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 3:51GASOKevin Ellison 1 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:26GASOKevin Ellison 6 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GASO Elo 1594, TROY Elo 1007 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GASO -25.9 (94% to win) — 16.4 points clear of GASO's market line of -9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#2 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #5 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Troy leads 5–4 · Troy has won 2 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| TROY | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.69 | points / drive | 3.17 |
| 3.12 | allowed / drive | 2.12 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 23% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →