Ole Miss vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MISSTeam statsARK
- Q4 11:42ARKAdam McFain 18 Yd Field Goal 0–30
- Q3 3:38ARKRohan Gaines 100 Yd Interception Return (Adam McFain Kick)0–27
- Q3 5:43ARKAdam McFain 31 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q1 1:09ARKAlex Collins 1 Yd Run (Adam McFain Kick)0–17
- Q1 7:46ARKAdam McFain 22 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 12:05ARKKeon Hatcher 25 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Adam McFain Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBo Wallace 16/31, 235 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJaylen Walton 7 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecQuincy Adeboyejo 6 REC, 73 YDS
- PassBrandon Allen 5/10, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJonathan Williams 20 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecKeon Hatcher 2 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARK up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:05ARK +18%
Keon Hatcher 25 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Adam McFain Kick)
- Q1 1:09ARK +17%
Alex Collins 1 Yd Run (Adam McFain Kick)
- Q1 7:46ARK +9%
Adam McFain 22 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 6:42ARK +6%
Jonathan Williams pass incomplete to Hunter Henry
FAQ
What was the final score of Ole Miss vs. Arkansas?
Ole Miss 0, Arkansas 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MISS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MISS | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 316 | Total yards | 311 |
| 253 | Passing yards | 152 |
| 63 | Rushing yards | 159 |
| 19 | First downs | 17 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/38 | Comp/Att | 8/17 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-20 | Penalties | 6-44 |
| 25:59 | Possession | 34:01 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:42 ARK field goal on 4th & 1 at MISS 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:42ARKAdam McFain 18 Yd Field Goal 0–30
- Q3 3:38ARKRohan Gaines 100 Yd Interception Return (Adam McFain Kick)0–27
- Q3 5:43ARKAdam McFain 31 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q1 1:09ARKAlex Collins 1 Yd Run (Adam McFain Kick)0–17
- Q1 7:46ARKAdam McFain 22 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 12:05ARKKeon Hatcher 25 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Adam McFain Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1734, MISS Elo 1934 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK +5.6 (36% to win) — 3.1 points clear of MISS's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#20 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #88 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Arkansas leads 37–34–1 · Ole Miss has won 3 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| MISS | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.62 | points / drive | 2.30 |
| 0.96 | allowed / drive | 1.57 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 25% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →