UConn vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CONNTeam statsBUF
- Q4 10:29BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.12–41
- Q4 10:29BUFBUFFALO pass complete for a touchdown.12–40
- Q3 2:36BUFBUFFALO 50 yard field goal GOOD.12–34
- Q3 5:21BUFBUFFALO 49 yard field goal GOOD.12–31
- Q2 3:54CONNCONNECTICUT rush for a touchdown.12–28
- Q2 6:28BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.6–28
- Q2 6:28BUFBUFFALO pass complete for a touchdown.6–27
- Q2 11:17BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.6–21
- Q2 11:17BUFBUFFALO rush for a touchdown.6–20
- Q2 13:10CONNCONNECTICUT 37 yard field goal GOOD.6–14
- Q1 2:16BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.3–14
- Q1 2:16BUFBUFFALO interception return for a touchdown.3–13
- Q1 6:20CONNCONNECTICUT 33 yard field goal GOOD.3–7
- Q1 12:18BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 12:18BUFBUFFALO pass complete for a touchdown.0–6
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CONN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BUF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 6.6
- BUF lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassChandler Whitmer 10/24, 182 YDS, 2 INT
- RushLyle McCombs 13 CAR, 33 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGeremy Davis 5 REC, 102 YDS
- PassJoe Licata 10/19, 177 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushBranden Oliver 23 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAlex Neutz 2 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBUF up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:17BUF +18%
Branden Oliver rush for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 6:28BUF +17%
Joe Licata pass complete to Alex Neutz for 22 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 2:16BUF +17%
Chandler Whitmer pass intercepted by Najja Johnson at the UConn 33, returned for 33 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 12:18BUF +14%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 3:54CONN +10%
Lyle McCombs rush for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 13:10CONN +8%
Chad Christen 37 yard field goal GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UConn vs. Buffalo?
UConn 12, Buffalo 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CONN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CONN | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 220 | Total yards | 330 |
| 193 | Passing yards | 177 |
| 27 | Rushing yards | 153 |
| 14 | First downs | 15 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 12/29 | Comp/Att | 10/21 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 0.7 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 29:39 | Possession | 29:51 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:20 CONN field goal on 4th & 1 at BUF 16. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.92 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:29BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.12–41
- Q4 10:29BUFBUFFALO pass complete for a touchdown.12–40
- Q3 2:36BUFBUFFALO 50 yard field goal GOOD.12–34
- Q3 5:21BUFBUFFALO 49 yard field goal GOOD.12–31
- Q2 3:54CONNCONNECTICUT rush for a touchdown.12–28
- Q2 6:28BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.6–28
- Q2 6:28BUFBUFFALO pass complete for a touchdown.6–27
- Q2 11:17BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.6–21
- Q2 11:17BUFBUFFALO rush for a touchdown.6–20
- Q2 13:10CONNCONNECTICUT 37 yard field goal GOOD.6–14
- Q1 2:16BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.3–14
- Q1 2:16BUFBUFFALO interception return for a touchdown.3–13
- Q1 6:20CONNCONNECTICUT 33 yard field goal GOOD.3–7
- Q1 12:18BUFBUFFALO Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 12:18BUFBUFFALO pass complete for a touchdown.0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BUF Elo 1171, CONN Elo 1474 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BUF +9.7 (27% to win) — 7.7 points clear of CONN's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#15 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #89 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →UConn leads 12–2 · UConn has won 2 straight · 21% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →