#11Zach Terrell

QB·Western Michigan·2016 201513.1 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Zach Terrell is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Western Michigan. Zach's 2016 season ranks in the 90th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 402 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Zach Terrell's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

263/377 Comp/Att3533 Pass yards33 Pass TD4 INT69.8% Comp %

Rushing

249 Rush yards7 Rush TD80 Carries3.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency90
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency85
Clutch26

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)90th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸11 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 1.52 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Northern Illinois (SP+ -2).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Northwestern	W22-21	2.9	26/36	218	1	0	73.9	40	0	0.23
2	vsNorth Carolina Central	W70-21	—	15/22	255	4	0	96.8	4	1	0.67
3	@Illinois	W34-10	-6.7	9/13	150	0	0	71.6	21	1	0.33
4	vsGeorgia Southern	W49-31	-3.9	18/27	270	4	0	96.1	35	0	0.83
5	@Central Michigan	W49-10	-6.1	15/21	170	3	0	91.8	12	0	0.66
6	vsNorthern Illinois	W45-30	-2.4	18/24	327	3	0	93.1	-4	1	1.52
7	@Akron	W41-0	-5.6	21/31	207	2	0	86.6	34	2	0.35
8	vsEastern Michigan	W45-31	-8.2	29/35	398	3	1	86.6	0	0	0.85
10	@Ball State	W52-20	-7.0	23/34	367	3	0	90.1	—	—	0.65
11	@Kent State	W37-21	-12.0	6/13	83	0	0	65.7	39	1	0.41
12	vsBuffalo	W38-0	-18.8	29/37	445	4	0	91.6	24	0	0.76
13	vsToledo	W55-35	12.3	19/25	196	3	0	90.7	17	0	0.78
14	vsOhio	W29-23	-2.1	19/31	290	2	2	58.9	13	0	0.44
1	vsWisconsin	L16-24	16.1	16/28	157	1	1	44.1	14	1	0.41

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

44.0%

Passing plays

99.5%

Rushing plays

10.7%

Standard downs

36.8%

Passing downs

64.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.62
Passing downs: 0.55
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.60 / 0.55

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Western Michigan	8.4	0.530	—	201.4
2016	Western Michigan	13.1	0.665	+0.14	293.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.