#4Victor Rosa

RB·UConn·2025

Victor Rosa is a Pass-Catching Back for UConn. Victor's 2025 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 50 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Victor Rosa's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

155 Rush yards2 Rush TD30 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

15 Receptions147 Rec yards1 Rec TD9.8 Yards/rec

Returns

4 Kick returns72 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency8
Volume17
Explosiveness44
Consistency8
Receiving100

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency8th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.39 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.16 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Central Connecticut.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsCentral Connecticut	W59-13	—	2	27	13.5	1	—	—	—	1.16
2	@Syracuse	L20-27	-13.1	3	13	4.3	0	—	—	—	-0.00
3	@Delaware	L41-44	-10.9	3	40	13.3	1	1	3	0	0.39
4	vsBall State	W31-25	-23.0	3	5	1.7	0	1	0	0	-0.58
5	@Buffalo	W20-17	-7.5	2	10	5.0	0	2	10	0	0.24
6	vsFlorida International	W51-10	-10.5	3	-2	-0.7	0	2	73	1	0.92
8	@Boston College	W38-23	-8.5	4	17	4.3	0	—	—	—	0.00
9	@Rice	L34-37	-14.8	2	10	5.0	0	6	29	0	-0.09
10	vsUAB	W38-19	-15.8	2	9	4.5	0	—	—	—	0.07
11	vsDuke	W37-34	6.6	2	4	2.0	0	—	—	—	-0.22
12	vsAir Force	W26-16	-3.2	1	9	9.0	0	3	32	0	0.56
13	@Florida Atlantic	W48-45	-8.7	1	5	5.0	0	—	—	—	-0.49
20	vsArmy	L16-41	0.8	2	8	4.0	0	—	—	—	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

5.8%

Passing plays

4.3%

Rushing plays

7.7%

Standard downs

6.4%

Passing downs

4.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.06
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.24 / 0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).