#2Tyler Murphy

QB·Boston College·20146.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Tyler Murphy is a Dual-Threat QB for Boston College. Tyler's 2014 season ranks in the 43th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 409 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tyler Murphy's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

131/230 Comp/Att1623 Pass yards13 Pass TD10 INT57.0% Comp %

Rushing

1184 Rush yards11 Rush TD181 Carries6.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency43
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency87
Clutch74

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)43th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency87th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.62 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Wake Forest (SP+ -8).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Massachusetts	W30-7	-20.2	17/24	173	1	1	83.7	118	1	0.57
2	vsPittsburgh	L20-30	14.1	10/28	134	1	2	47.9	92	1	0.12
3	vsUSC	W37-31	17.1	5/13	54	0	1	89.7	191	1	0.41
4	vsMaine	W40-10	—	11/18	130	1	1	90.7	99	2	0.58
5	vsColorado State	L21-24	4.5	12/18	169	0	1	87.4	79	1	0.46
7	@NC State	W30-14	8.1	12/19	101	0	0	86.8	132	2	0.38
8	vsClemson	L13-17	18.1	8/19	108	2	0	26.0	55	0	0.10
9	@Wake Forest	W23-17	-7.8	11/15	165	1	0	78.9	77	0	0.62
10	@Virginia Tech	W33-31	7.8	8/15	110	2	0	67.2	127	1	0.34
11	vsLouisville	L19-38	17.0	7/15	149	1	4	26.4	41	0	0.27
13	@Florida State	L17-20	28.5	6/10	73	1	0	65.0	48	1	0.27
14	vsSyracuse	W28-7	-2.1	13/17	160	1	0	80.0	20	0	0.46
1	vsPenn State	L30-31	9.2	11/19	97	2	0	84.2	105	1	0.32

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

46.0%

Passing plays

95.4%

Rushing plays

26.1%

Standard downs

37.7%

Passing downs

64.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.19 / 0.64

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.