#4Torrance Burgess Jr.

RB·UTEP·2023

Torrance Burgess Jr. is a Explosive Back for UTEP. Torrance's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 134 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Torrance Burgess Jr.'s projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

620 Rush yards2 Rush TD124 Carries5.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

17 Receptions227 Rec yards0 Rec TD13.4 Yards/rec

Returns

9 Kick returns202 KR yards0 KR TD3 Punt returns67 PR yards1 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume54
Explosiveness40
Consistency68
Receiving56

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.66 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Middle Tennessee (SP+ -10).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
0	@Jacksonville State	L14-17	-1.6	12	58	4.8	0	1	6	0	—
1	vsIncarnate Word	W28-14	—	10	85	8.5	1	—	—	—	0.49
2	@Northwestern	L7-38	-1.3	7	34	4.9	0	1	3	0	-0.06
3	@Arizona	L10-31	14.1	8	22	2.8	0	3	78	0	0.41
4	vsUNLV	L28-45	1.4	19	99	5.2	1	3	30	0	0.14
5	vsLouisiana Tech	L10-24	-12.9	11	68	6.2	0	—	—	—	0.45
7	@Florida International	W27-14	-21.2	20	86	4.3	0	—	—	—	0.03
8	vsNew Mexico State	L7-28	-1.8	8	25	3.1	0	4	62	0	0.38
9	@Sam Houston	W37-34	-13.8	13	52	4.0	0	1	5	0	-0.10
10	vsWestern Kentucky	L13-21	-2.0	15	86	5.7	0	1	-1	0	-0.01
12	@Middle Tennessee	L30-34	-9.5	1	5	5.0	0	3	44	0	0.66

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

18.8%

Passing plays

5.8%

Rushing plays

30.2%

Standard downs

21.0%

Passing downs

14.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.07
Passing downs: 0.51
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.89 / 0.06

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).