#4Thomas Tyner

RB·Oregon·20131.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Thomas Tyner is a Explosive Back for Oregon. Thomas's 2013 season ranks in the 68th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 89 plays — a average rate for the RB. A five-star recruit in the class of 2013, Thomas has shown flashes of the talent that made him a coveted recruit.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Thomas Tyner's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2013

★★★★★

5-Star · Blue chip

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9907
National rank: #20
High school: Aloha
Hometown: Beaverton, OR

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2013 Production

Rushing

711 Rush yards9 Rush TD115 Carries6.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

14 Receptions134 Rec yards0 Rec TD9.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs RB peers

Efficiency68
Volume41
Explosiveness64
Consistency53
Receiving51

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)68th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency53th %ile · average

Key findings

▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.19 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.96 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Virginia (SP+ -5).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	@Virginia	W59-10	-5.2	4	51	12.8	2	—	—	—	0.96
3	vsTennessee	W59-14	5.1	8	29	3.6	1	—	—	—	-0.14
5	vsCalifornia	W55-16	-8.7	13	94	7.2	1	1	3	0	0.19
6	@Colorado	W57-16	-0.7	10	30	3.0	1	2	29	0	0.18
7	@Washington	W45-24	20.5	12	57	4.8	0	2	24	0	0.20
8	vsWashington State	W62-38	8.2	7	99	14.1	2	3	42	0	0.60
9	vsUCLA	W42-14	20.0	14	77	5.5	1	1	7	0	0.14
11	@Stanford	L20-26	21.7	1	2	2.0	0	—	—	—	-0.56
12	vsUtah	W44-21	11.8	7	57	8.1	0	—	—	—	0.58
13	@Arizona	L16-42	14.6	11	53	4.8	0	3	4	0	-0.05
14	vsOregon State	W36-35	11.9	22	140	6.4	1	—	—	—	0.41
1	vsTexas	W30-7	10.5	6	22	3.7	0	2	25	0	0.36

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.3%

Passing plays

4.0%

Rushing plays

22.2%

Standard downs

16.2%

Passing downs

9.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.19
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.06 / 0.18

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.