Thomas Castellanos

QB·Boston College·20235.7 pts line value

Thomas Castellanos is a Dual-Threat QB for Boston College. Thomas's 2023 season ranks in the 18th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 475 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Thomas Castellanos's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

189/330 Comp/Att2270 Pass yards15 Pass TD14 INT57.3% Comp %

Rushing

1113 Rush yards13 Rush TD215 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency18
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency85
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)18th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.68 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs UConn (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorthern Illinois	L24-27	-7.5	13/28	138	2	1	46.3	67	1	0.08
2	vsHoly Cross	W31-28	—	17/23	201	2	0	23.4	69	0	0.24
3	vsFlorida State	L29-31	19.4	20/33	305	1	1	78.8	95	1	0.44
4	@Louisville	L28-56	8.0	17/33	265	3	0	57.4	49	1	0.42
5	vsVirginia	W27-24	-10.8	16/26	183	2	2	47.1	78	0	0.32
6	@Army	W27-24	-4.0	4/9	73	0	1	67.7	142	4	0.43
8	@Georgia Tech	W38-23	0.3	17/29	255	0	1	95.4	128	2	0.63
9	vsUConn	W21-14	-15.6	16/24	151	1	1	40.4	45	0	0.68
10	@Syracuse	W17-10	-4.4	20/37	165	1	0	60.8	87	1	0.38
11	vsVirginia Tech	L22-48	5.8	10/20	110	1	2	34.0	46	0	0.37
12	@Pittsburgh	L16-24	-7.3	13/25	171	1	2	47.6	21	0	0.04
13	vsMiami	L20-45	9.6	15/25	151	1	2	66.2	130	1	0.26
20	vsSMU	W23-14	10.1	11/18	102	0	1	79.1	156	2	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

56.9%

Passing plays

86.6%

Rushing plays

37.4%

Standard downs

49.9%

Passing downs

73.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.24 / 0.51

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.