#6Tevin Coleman

RB·Indiana·20145.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Tevin Coleman is a Featured Back for Indiana. Tevin's 2014 season ranks in the 73th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 263 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tevin Coleman's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

2036 Rush yards15 Rush TD270 Carries7.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

25 Receptions141 Rec yards0 Rec TD5.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers

Efficiency73
Volume100
Explosiveness90
Consistency56
Receiving52

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)73th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency56th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.44 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.05 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Indiana State.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
LeVante Bellamy	Western Michigan	2019	269	0.400	5.4	107.6
Ameer Abdullah	Nebraska	2014	262	0.380	5.3	99.6
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Bijan Robinson	Texas	2022	276	0.390	5.9	107.6
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsIndiana State	W28-10	—	23	247	10.7	2	—	—	—	1.05
3	@Bowling Green	L42-45	-5.4	24	190	7.9	3	4	38	0	0.07
4	@Missouri	W31-27	19.3	19	132	6.9	1	3	57	0	0.27
5	vsMaryland	L15-37	5.7	22	122	5.5	1	2	-2	0	—
6	vsNorth Texas	W49-24	-9.4	17	150	8.8	1	4	34	0	0.32
7	@Iowa	L29-45	6.8	15	219	14.6	3	2	7	0	0.72
8	vsMichigan State	L17-56	24.1	15	132	8.8	0	2	6	0	0.02
10	@Michigan	L10-34	8.2	27	108	4.0	0	—	—	—	-0.10
11	vsPenn State	L7-13	9.2	20	71	3.5	0	4	-8	0	-0.24
12	@Rutgers	L23-45	-1.5	32	307	9.6	1	—	—	—	0.44
13	@Ohio State	L27-42	25.8	27	228	8.4	3	2	3	0	0.24
14	vsPurdue	W23-16	-6.2	29	130	4.5	0	2	6	0	-0.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

36.2%

Passing plays

10.3%

Rushing plays

53.3%

Standard downs

42.2%

Passing downs

24.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.23
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.15 / 0.30

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.