#2Terrill Davis

WR·Oklahoma State·2025

Terrill Davis is a Versatile WR for Oklahoma State. Terrill's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 55 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Terrill Davis's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

29 Receptions373 Rec yards0 Rec TD12.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume23
Explosiveness39
Consistency62
Pass-Down83

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency62th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.33 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.44 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Kansas (SP+ 4).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Xavier White	Texas Tech	2020	62	0.300	0.5	18.6
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5
Ainias Smith	Texas A&M	2020	55	0.310	0.5	17.0
Noah Short	Army	2024	69	0.300	0.5	20.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Long	EPA/play
1	vsUT Martin	W27-7	—	2	75	37.5	41	0.79
2	@Oregon	L3-69	25.9	1	3	3.0	3	-0.24
4	vsTulsa	L12-19	-10.0	4	37	9.3	17	0.47
5	vsBaylor	L27-45	1.4	2	11	5.5	6	0.04
6	@Arizona	L13-41	12.0	3	23	7.7	25	0.06
10	@Kansas	L21-38	4.1	5	78	15.6	29	1.44
12	vsKansas State	L6-14	7.0	4	55	13.8	23	0.42
13	@UCF	L14-17	-1.2	3	34	11.3	14	-0.06
14	vsIowa State	L13-20	9.9	5	57	11.4	15	0.59

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

8.2%

Passing plays

16.5%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

8.6%

Passing downs

7.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.42
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.29 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).