#1Ted Hurst

WR·Georgia State·2025

Ted Hurst is a Versatile WR for Georgia State. Ted's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 106 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ted Hurst's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

71 Receptions1004 Rec yards6 Rec TD14.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume41
Explosiveness48
Consistency69
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency69th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.33 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Memphis (SP+ 8).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9
Javion Posey	Florida Atlantic	2020	53	0.450	1.4	23.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Ole Miss	L7-63	24.0	1	6	6.0	0	6	-0.54
2	vsMemphis	L16-38	7.6	7	97	13.9	0	27	1.33
3	vsMurray State	W37-21	—	10	172	17.2	2	52	1.15
4	@Vanderbilt	L21-70	20.3	7	71	10.1	0	19	0.14
6	vsJames Madison	L7-14	12.3	3	60	20.0	0	52	0.23
7	vsApp State	L20-41	-11.4	9	105	11.7	0	20	0.42
8	@Georgia Southern	L24-41	-9.4	5	68	13.6	1	31	0.21
9	vsSouth Alabama	L31-38	-12.7	5	110	22.0	2	70	1.14
11	@Coastal Carolina	L27-40	-15.1	10	165	16.5	1	57	0.48
12	vsMarshall	L18-30	-4.5	7	74	10.6	0	41	0.50
14	@Old Dominion	L10-27	5.9	7	76	10.9	0	29	0.33

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.2%

Passing plays

25.1%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

12.9%

Passing downs

17.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.76
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.48 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).