#16Tahj Washington

WR·USC·2023

Tahj Washington is a Vertical Threat WR for USC. Tahj's 2023 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 60 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tahj Washington's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving

59 Receptions1062 Rec yards8 Rec TD18.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume22
Explosiveness73
Consistency87
Pass-Down100

Player type

Vertical Threat WR

Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.

Downfield threatYAC upsideCreates space for teammates

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency87th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸11 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.50 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.87 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Nevada (SP+ -22).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
0	vsSan José State	W56-28	-3.4	2	85	42.5	1	76	—
1	vsNevada	W66-14	-22.0	3	75	25.0	2	45	2.87
2	vsStanford	W56-10	-11.9	4	73	18.3	0	28	1.19
4	@Arizona State	W42-28	-11.3	1	45	45.0	1	45	1.52
5	@Colorado	W48-41	-4.9	8	117	14.6	1	71	0.94
6	vsArizona	W43-41	14.1	3	61	20.3	0	26	2.19
7	@Notre Dame	L20-48	20.1	4	41	10.3	0	14	0.92
8	vsUtah	L32-34	8.5	5	112	22.4	0	51	1.50
9	@California	W50-49	-0.1	5	102	20.4	0	56	0.96
10	vsWashington	L42-52	16.4	8	122	15.3	1	41	0.92
11	@Oregon	L27-36	26.2	4	82	20.5	0	59	1.88
12	vsUCLA	L20-38	9.7	5	48	9.6	0	23	0.94
20	vsLouisville	W42-28	8.0	7	99	14.1	2	29	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

7.8%

Passing plays

13.2%

Rushing plays

0.3%

Standard downs

8.5%

Passing downs

6.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 1.17
Passing downs: 2.08
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.38 / 0.83

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).