#2Shedeur Sanders

QB·Colorado·2024 20237.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Shedeur Sanders is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Colorado. Shedeur's 2023 season ranks in the 23th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 492 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shedeur Sanders's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

298/430 Comp/Att3230 Pass yards27 Pass TD3 INT69.3% Comp %

Rushing

-77 Rush yards4 Rush TD111 Carries-0.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency23
Volume100
Dual-Threat72
Consistency79
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)23th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.13 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.74 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs TCU (SP+ 8).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@TCU	W45-42	7.9	38/47	510	4	0	91.1	-32	0	0.74
2	vsNebraska	W36-14	0.3	31/42	393	2	0	68.0	-30	1	0.47
3	vsColorado State	W43-35	-8.9	38/47	348	4	1	63.6	3	0	0.24
4	@Oregon	L6-42	26.2	23/33	159	1	0	28.2	-34	0	0.05
5	vsUSC	L41-48	9.4	30/45	371	4	1	64.5	50	1	0.29
6	@Arizona State	W27-24	-11.3	26/42	239	1	0	61.3	-17	1	0.26
7	vsStanford	L43-46	-11.9	33/47	400	5	1	73.6	37	0	0.43
9	@UCLA	L16-28	9.7	27/43	217	1	0	38.2	-20	0	0.00
10	vsOregon State	L19-26	12.6	24/39	245	2	0	40.2	-37	0	0.09
11	vsArizona	L31-34	14.1	22/35	262	2	0	69.8	29	1	0.32
12	@Washington State	L14-56	4.9	6/10	86	1	0	46.5	-26	0	0.29

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

67.7%

Passing plays

95.5%

Rushing plays

20.4%

Standard downs

62.2%

Passing downs

78.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.10
Passing downs: 0.61
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.31 / 0.26

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 — 2024 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2023	Colorado	7.0	0.440	—	245.2
2024	Colorado	8.7	0.460	+0.02	258.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.