#13Sawyer Robertson

QB·Baylor·2025 20248.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Sawyer Robertson is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Baylor. Sawyer's 2024 season ranks in the 68th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 413 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sawyer Robertson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

229/368 Comp/Att3071 Pass yards28 Pass TD8 INT62.2% Comp %

Rushing

230 Rush yards4 Rush TD63 Carries3.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency68
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency83
Clutch83

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)68th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.10 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.22 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Tarleton State.

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsTarleton State	W45-3	—	3/5	67	1	0	97.9	—	—	1.22
3	vsAir Force	W31-3	-11.7	18/24	248	0	0	87.6	5	1	0.36
4	@Colorado	L31-38	8.1	11/21	148	2	0	89.7	82	1	0.08
5	vsBYU	L28-34	15.3	27/48	324	3	2	75.6	29	1	0.37
6	@Iowa State	L21-43	10.3	25/44	258	3	1	88.4	24	0	0.29
8	@Texas Tech	W59-35	4.3	21/32	274	5	0	78.6	16	0	0.56
9	vsOklahoma State	W38-28	-2.6	11/19	222	3	1	88.8	73	1	0.93
10	vsTCU	W37-34	10.8	19/34	242	0	0	80.1	28	0	0.38
12	@West Virginia	W49-35	2.1	26/36	329	3	0	86.0	-5	0	0.57
13	@Houston	W20-10	-8.2	15/23	204	2	3	56.7	-14	0	0.54
14	vsKansas	W45-17	4.9	23/31	310	4	0	88.6	-11	0	0.49
20	vsLSU	L31-44	15.9	30/51	445	2	1	72.1	3	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

50.4%

Passing plays

93.1%

Rushing plays

11.4%

Standard downs

44.9%

Passing downs

63.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.32
Passing downs: 0.54
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / 0.42

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 — 2025 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2024	Baylor	8.3	0.500	—	224.8
2025	Baylor	6.8	0.370	-0.13	178.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.