#2Sahmir Hagans

WR·Duke·2025

Sahmir Hagans is a Slot Specialist WR for Duke. Sahmir's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 62 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sahmir Hagans's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

44 Receptions512 Rec yards6 Rec TD11.6 Yards/rec

Returns

14 Kick returns467 KR yards1 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume18
Explosiveness31
Consistency65
Pass-Down100

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency65th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.81 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs NC State (SP+ 5).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
Javion Posey	Florida Atlantic	2020	53	0.450	1.4	23.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsElon	W45-17	—	5	54	10.8	2	21	1.04
2	vsIllinois	L19-45	12.9	3	33	11.0	0	24	-0.03
3	@Tulane	L27-34	6.3	1	29	29.0	1	29	0.10
4	vsNC State	W45-33	4.8	3	63	21.0	1	33	1.81
5	@Syracuse	W38-3	-13.1	5	59	11.8	0	23	0.64
6	@California	W45-21	-3.2	3	10	3.3	0	4	-0.54
8	vsGeorgia Tech	L18-27	9.3	5	69	13.8	1	24	1.72
10	@Clemson	W46-45	9.5	3	2	0.7	0	3	-0.63
11	@UConn	L34-37	5.1	2	23	11.5	0	17	1.23
12	vsVirginia	L17-34	11.1	1	35	35.0	0	35	0.81
13	@North Carolina	W32-25	-6.6	3	30	10.0	0	22	1.10
14	vsWake Forest	W49-32	5.7	2	29	14.5	1	30	0.10
15	vsVirginia	W27-20	11.1	2	31	15.5	0	35	1.39
20	vsArizona State	W42-39	3.9	6	45	7.5	0	9	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

6.4%

Passing plays

11.7%

Rushing plays

0.2%

Standard downs

4.7%

Passing downs

10.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.91
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.53 / 4.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).