#9Ronnel Johnson

WR·Missouri State·2025

Ronnel Johnson is a Slot Specialist WR for Missouri State. Ronnel's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 57 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ronnel Johnson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

35 Receptions463 Rec yards2 Rec TD13.2 Yards/rec

Returns

3 Kick returns62 KR yards0 KR TD4 Punt returns10 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume19
Explosiveness42
Consistency59
Pass-Down100

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency59th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.17 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.94 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Louisiana Tech (SP+ -1).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Xavier White	Texas Tech	2020	62	0.300	0.5	18.6
Ainias Smith	Texas A&M	2020	55	0.310	0.5	17.0
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Noah Short	Army	2024	69	0.300	0.5	20.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@USC	L13-73	16.9	2	17	8.5	0	11	0.36
4	vsUT Martin	W42-10	—	3	51	17.0	0	35	0.26
5	vsWestern Kentucky	L22-27	1.6	5	64	12.8	0	19	0.48
7	@Middle Tennessee	W22-20	-16.0	5	69	13.8	1	20	0.93
9	@New Mexico State	W24-17	-15.5	6	99	16.5	1	35	0.48
10	vsFlorida International	W28-21	-10.5	3	29	9.7	0	14	-0.38
11	@Liberty	W21-17	-9.0	1	15	15.0	0	15	-0.32
12	vsUTEP	W38-24	-17.5	3	54	18.0	0	25	0.88
13	@Kennesaw State	L34-41	-5.4	2	20	10.0	0	16	-0.16
14	vsLouisiana Tech	L30-42	-1.3	2	20	10.0	0	14	0.94
20	vsArkansas State	L28-34	-8.8	3	25	8.3	0	13	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

6.8%

Passing plays

12.1%

Rushing plays

0.3%

Standard downs

5.2%

Passing downs

9.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.04
Passing downs: 0.63
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / -3.39

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).