What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.42Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.04Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.46Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Rohan Jones's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs TE peers
- Efficiency100
- Volume11
- Explosiveness100
- Consistency83
- Pass-Down100
Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.59 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 3.39 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Memphis (SP+ 8).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 1.29
- Passing downs
- 2.46
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 1.73 / 1.15
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).