#2Peyton Higgins

WR·Troy·2025

Peyton Higgins is a Slot Specialist WR for Troy. Peyton's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 57 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Peyton Higgins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

36 Receptions301 Rec yards1 Rec TD8.4 Yards/rec

Returns

8 Kick returns141 KR yards0 KR TD17 Punt returns98 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume17
Explosiveness9
Consistency40
Pass-Down100

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency40th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.47 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.35 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Nicholls.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Dane Kinamon	Air Force	2021	39	0.410	0.7	16.0
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
JoJo Natson	Utah State	2014	51	0.390	1.0	19.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsNicholls	W38-20	—	2	21	10.5	0	14	2.35
2	@Clemson	L16-27	9.5	1	4	4.0	0	4	-0.02
3	vsMemphis	L7-28	7.6	2	0	0.0	0	5	-0.41
4	@Buffalo	W21-17	-7.5	2	13	6.5	0	7	0.35
6	vsSouth Alabama	W31-24	-12.7	—	—	—	—	—	-1.01
7	@Texas State	W48-41	2.3	4	40	10.0	0	19	1.75
8	@UL Monroe	W37-14	-21.6	3	29	9.7	0	11	1.84
9	vsLouisiana	W35-23	-10.1	3	22	7.3	0	10	0.60
10	vsArkansas State	L10-23	-8.8	3	21	7.0	0	8	0.17
12	@Old Dominion	L0-33	5.9	1	4	4.0	0	4	-0.44
13	vsGeorgia State	W31-19	-24.5	5	48	9.6	0	21	0.27
14	@Southern Miss	W28-18	-7.1	6	51	8.5	1	16	0.83
15	@James Madison	L14-31	12.3	1	17	17.0	0	17	-0.08
20	vsJacksonville State	L13-17	-6.7	3	31	10.3	0	20	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

6.1%

Passing plays

11.5%

Rushing plays

0.4%

Standard downs

4.5%

Passing downs

9.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.71
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.51 / -0.82

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).