#13Nathan Acevedo

WR·San Diego State·2025

Nathan Acevedo is a Versatile WR for San Diego State.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nathan Acevedo's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

16 Receptions190 Rec yards0 Rec TD11.9 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Punt returns63 PR yards1 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency0
Volume12
Explosiveness33
Consistency0
Pass-Down0

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.38 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.75 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Fresno State (SP+ 2).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8
De'Michael Harris	Southern Miss	2019	117	0.130	0.7	15.2
Hyleck Foster	Marshall	2015	101	0.180	0.5	18.2
Davis Bryson	Kennesaw State	2024	97	0.200	0.0	19.4
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Long	EPA/play
1	vsStony Brook	W42-0	—	2	32	16.0	17	0.22
6	vsColorado State	W45-24	-15.6	1	6	6.0	6	-0.53
7	@Nevada	W44-10	-13.4	2	4	2.0	2	-0.56
9	@Fresno State	W23-0	1.8	1	8	8.0	8	1.75
10	vsWyoming	W24-7	-11.3	1	26	26.0	26	0.66
11	@Hawai'i	L6-38	1.7	3	41	13.7	26	0.06
13	vsSan José State	W25-3	-14.3	1	6	6.0	6	-0.38
14	@New Mexico	L17-23	0.9	1	6	6.0	6	-0.17
20	vsNorth Texas	L47-49	13.8	4	61	15.3	42	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

4.1%

Passing plays

11.1%

Rushing plays

0.3%

Standard downs

4.5%

Passing downs

3.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.05
Passing downs: -0.91
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.02 / -2.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).