#8Marcus Mariota

QB·Oregon·2014 20133.4 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Marcus Mariota is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Oregon. Marcus's 2013 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 375 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Marcus Mariota's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

245/386 Comp/Att3665 Pass yards31 Pass TD4 INT63.5% Comp %

Rushing

715 Rush yards9 Rush TD96 Carries7.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency65
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency77
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.09 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.69 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Utah (SP+ 12).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNicholls	W66-3	—	12/21	234	1	0	97.9	113	2	0.58
2	@Virginia	W59-10	-5.2	14/28	199	2	0	97.1	122	1	0.20
3	vsTennessee	W59-14	5.1	23/33	456	4	0	96.0	27	1	0.65
5	vsCalifornia	W55-16	-8.7	11/25	114	2	0	43.1	33	1	-0.40
6	@Colorado	W57-16	-0.7	16/27	355	5	0	94.9	43	2	0.40
7	@Washington	W45-24	20.5	24/31	366	3	0	90.7	88	1	0.42
8	vsWashington State	W62-38	8.2	23/32	327	2	0	92.6	67	1	0.47
9	vsUCLA	W42-14	20.0	21/28	230	1	0	77.5	18	0	0.48
11	@Stanford	L20-26	21.7	20/34	250	2	0	49.6	-16	0	0.19
12	vsUtah	W44-21	11.8	19/26	288	3	0	87.3	-18	0	0.69
13	@Arizona	L16-42	14.6	27/41	308	2	2	47.2	52	0	0.12
14	vsOregon State	W36-35	11.9	17/34	285	3	2	63.4	53	0	0.33
1	vsTexas	W30-7	10.5	18/26	253	1	0	81.6	133	0	0.57

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

47.0%

Passing plays

93.3%

Rushing plays

13.6%

Standard downs

42.6%

Passing downs

57.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.72
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.53

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 28 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Oregon	3.4	0.273	—	106.3
2014	Oregon	19.2	0.713	+0.44	434.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.